2/12/2018 7:04:25 AM
- As of 7 AM CST crude $0.94 higher, US$ 0.167 points lower, and gold 5 higher.
- March options expire February 23rd and First Notice Day for March futures is February 28th.
- The Lunar New Year in China begins on Friday, February 16th. China’s markets will be closed from Lunar New Year Eve on the 15th through the 21st of February.
- USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum is scheduled for February 22-23.
- USDA Prospective plantings report will be out Thursday, March 29th.
- The commitment of traders report showed that funds have covered the majority of their shorts. Short positions are smaller in Chicago wheat, corn, beans, and soyoil, as well as now long in KC wheat, Mpls wheat and soymeal.
- Corn was higher overnight trading as high as $3.66 ¼ in the March contract and a high of $3.96 ¼ in the December contract.
- KOCOPIA, South Korea’s corn Processing Industry Association, bought 120,000 tonnes of corn in a tender that closed Monday. The corn is probably to be sourced from US origins, in 2 consignments of 60,000 tonnes for April 20th and May 5th arrival. The April consignment was purchased at $204.70 a tonne c&f, and the second at $205.52 a tonne c&f, with additional port unloading fees for shipments from the US Pacific North West.
- March corn sees resistance at $3.67 ½ and 3.69 ½ with support at $3.64.
- Chinese Dalian market corn was down 2 overnight.
- Spreads; H/K 7 ¾ cent carry, K/N 7 ¾ cent carry, N/Z 14 ¼ cent carry.
Outlook: Higher on strong feed, ethanol and export demand for US corn, as well as strength in the wheat markets.
- The bean market was substantially higher overnight with the March contract trading as high as $10.02 ¾, on strength in the soymeal market.
- Argentina received rain in the east covering just over half of the country, but turns direr mid-week. Brazil got rain in over 95% of growing areas, which is slowing harvest some, but temperatures are moderate.
- According to AgRural, as of Thursday, Brazil had harvested just 10% of their soybean crop compared to 19% last year. Rains have slowed harvest in Mato Grosso, the country’s largest grain producer, and in Parana beans are still not ready to harvest.
- March soybeans see resistance at $10.04 ¾ with support at $9.81 ½ and $9.74 ½.
- April palm oil closed up 29 ringgits, at 2543 ringgits.
- China beans were up 2 ½ cents overnight.
- Spreads: H/K 10 ¾ cent carry, K/N 9 ¾ cent carry, N/X 7 cent inverse.
Outlook: Higher on momentum from overnight trade and traders wanting to see more rain in Argentina growing regions.
- Wheat markets were stronger overnight drawing strength from dry weather in the plains.
- Iraq is in a tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes or more of hard milling wheat, which closed Sunday. The lowest offer was Australian wheat at $293.53 a tonne c&f. Offers are still being considered as no purchases have been made yet.
- The northern areas of hard red winter wheat country received snow over the weekend but not much change in weather forecasts for the southern plains of the US. Potential rains in the southeastern quarter of the plains next week, but the 16-30 day forecast remains dry.
- March Chicago wheat sees resistance at $4.62 ½ and $4.66 ¼ with support at $4.46 ¼ and $4.37 ¾.
- Spreads: Mpls H/K 12 ¼ cent carry, Kansas City H/K 15 cent carry, Chicago H/K 12 ¾ cent carry.
Outlook: Higher as we trade weather forecasts that are currently calling for limited moisture for the US southern plains.