8/10/2018 7:02:00 AM
- The Turkish lira is crashing, down as much as 12% and now down over 35% on the year, on news that the ECB is worried about its banks having exposure to Turkey. Traders are panicked in part because they don’t believe Turkey’s government will take any action to stabilize their currency. Unease spread to global markets, with the VIX (volatility) up 20% overnight.
- U.S. inflation data for July will be released at 7:30am CT, and is expected to hold at 2.9% with core CPI at 2.3%. Traders will be looking for any affects from tariffs.
- Iran is testing Asia’s willingness to follow U.S. sanctions, as their state run oil company dropped prices for September sales into Asia to the cheapest in 14 years.
- The USDA will release the August WASDE report this morning at 11:00am CT. This will be the first report since USDA eliminated the lockup briefing.
- As of 7:00 am CT, crude oil is up 36 cents to $67.17/barrel, gold is down $3.40 at $1,208.50, DOW down 110 to 25,383, dollar index up 429, and Euro is down 765 pts.
- The average trade guess for corn yield on Friday’s WASDE report is 176 bpa (171-180). Ending stocks are expected to rise from 1.552 billion to 1.636 billion bushels. World corn ending stocks are estimated at 152.59 MMT vs 151.96 in July.
- The latest 16-30 day forecast looks wetter for western and central Midwest and Delta, but drier for the northeastern Midwest.
- China raised their 2018 corn crop estimate by 2 MMT to 211.45 MMT, well below the USDA’s 225 MMT estimate.
Outlook: Dec futures down 1 ½ to up ¼ overnight.. the highly anticipated yield estimate will likely be viewed as bullish if under 175 bpa, and bearish if over 178 bpa.
- Average trade guess for WASDE soybean yield is 49.6 bpa (48-51.5) vs 49.4 bpa last Aug. Ending stocks trade guess is 638 million bushels, up 58 million from July. World soybean ending stocks are estimated at 99.33 MMT vs 98.27 MMT in July.
- Chinese Dalian soybeans were down 5 ¼, soymeal down 1.70, and soyoil down 4 at last trade.
- JCI China reports China is likely to import more sunflower seed meal from Ukraine, as they look for non-soybean protein sources.
Outlook: Nov futures down 5 to unchanged overnight. Failed to break through its 50 day moving average. Today’s yield estimate will be traded, but ultimately market direction will come down to U.S./China trade.
- Trade guesses for winter wheat are unchanged, while the average spring wheat estimate is down 13 million from July at 601 million bushels (570-633). Carryout is expected to drop 24 million to 961 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks are estimated at 256.42 MMT vs 260.88 MMT in July.
- The Canadian Prairies and Northwest U.S. look drier in the latest 7 day forecast.
- Jordan is tendering to buy 120,000 MT of optional origin feed barley.
- Ukraine’s Ag Ministry signed the memorandum to allow 8 MMT of milling wheat exports, as well as 16 MMT of total wheat. Similar soft caps were set last year, and 17.2 MMT with 10 MMT milling wheat were ultimately exported.
Outlook: KWU8 down 6 ¼ to up 1 overnight. World wheat ending stocks will be a major factor in today’s report, particularly the EU estimate.