Morning Highlights


  • China lowered its GDP growth target from 6.5% to between 6% and 6.5% in 2019.
  • The U.S. government has now been shut down a record 21 days. This is the first day that federal workers will miss a paycheck. Negotiations are at a standstill, and President Trump seems increasingly likely to declare a national emergency in order to get border wall funding.
  • The USDA is extending the deadline to apply for farm aid payments. The original January 15 deadline will be extended by the number of business days that USDA offices are closed due to the government shutdown.
  • Today’s scheduled WASDE report will be delayed due to the government shutdown.
  • As of 7:00 am CT, crude oil is down 20 cents to $52.39/barrel, gold is up 5.10 at $1,292.50, DOW down 50 to 23,903, dollar index down 225, and Euro is up 280 pts.


  • AgroConsult estimates Brazil’s corn crop at 95.6 MMT, with the safrinha crop 6% larger than Conab’s estimate at 68.3 MMT.
  • BAGE reports that Argentina’s corn is 86.1% planted vs 85.8% last year and 86.8% average. Conditions were down slightly, at 8.1% excellent, 43% good, 43% fair, and 5.9% poor.
  • Rosario estimates Argentina’s corn crop at 44 MMT vs 42-43 MMT last month, 32 MMT last year, and USDA at 42.5 MMT.

Outlook:  March futures up ¾ to up 3 overnight.. The market is bouncing back and forth with so much uncertainty.


  • BAGE reports Argentine soybean planting is 96.1% complete vs 94.3% last year and has totaled 17.9 million hectares. Conditions were raised to 7% excellent, 42% good, 42% fair, 8% poor, and 1% very poor.
  • AgroConsult lowered their Brazil soybean crop estimate by 5.2 MMT to 117.6 MMT.
  • China’s Dalian soybeans were down 13 ¾ overnight, soymeal down 4.30, soyoil down 32, and corn down 2 ¾. Malaysian palm oil was up 8 ringgits, basically unchanged this week.




March beans flat to up 5 overnight.. minimal rebound from yesterday’s steep losses and will need some fresh news to hold the gains.



  • BAGE says Argentine wheat harvest is 95.6% complete at 17.95 MMT vs 98.5% last year and 96% average. Condition ratings were raised from 43.3% to 53.5% excellent.
  • Korea bought 65,000 MT of feed wheat at $255.50 for LH March shipment.
  • Platts Russian 12.5 protein wheat was up $3.00/MT yesterday.

Outlook:  March KC wheat down 3 ¼ to flat overnight.. The export market seems to have plenty of low protein wheat, while higher protein values increase.