Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • US government remains in partial shutdown.

  • Grains are mostly weaker overnight. Energy markets are also weaker.

  • US stock futures are trading lower.

     

Corn

  • The corn market trades lower as the US government remains mostly shut down, and as a result, government data releases remain nonexistent. Overall, the trade seems to be in consensus that the USDA will drop the yield whenever the final production report is released.

  • Soybean and Corn Advisor Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Brazil corn production guess to 92mmt from 93mmt. He left his Argentina production guess unchanged at 40.5mmt.

  • Brazil rains are relatively widespread but light in a few areas with RGDS and Minas Gerais appearing to be the driest areas.

  • Turkey purchased 340tmt optional origin corn.

  • Spreads: H/K 8 ¼ carry, K/N 7 ½ carry. 

Outlook:  weaker trade on lack of fresh news

 

Oilseeds

  • The soybean market trades modestly lower on variable Brazil weather and declining production estimates. Soybean and Corn Advisor Cordonnier leads off the trading week by lowering his Brazil production guess 1mmt  to 115mmt with a lower bias. He left his Argentina estimate unchanged at 56mmt with a neutral bias.

  •  It appears rain have been relatively widespread across 75-85% of Brazil’s growing areas with northern Minas Gerias missing out. RGDS also appears to be on the dry side. Overall soy harvest is estimated at 6% complete versus 1% on the 5 year average. Mato Grosso is estimated at 12% harvested with early yields below expectations.

  • March palm oil closed higher for the second consecutive day this week while China’s Dalian beans were up 6.

  • China/US trade talks continue but no solid progress has been announced as the window for the US to be competitive on soybean exports is closing.

  • Spreads: H/K 13 ½ carry......K/N 12 ½ carry. 

Outlook: weaker but support could come from US/China trade optimism and SA crop worries

 

Wheat

  • The wheat markets are mixed to begin the week in light volume trade.

  • Over the weekend, Bangladesh issued a tender to buy 50tmt of 12.5% protein.

  • Ukraine has asked exporters to provide their plans for export through June as they’ve already reached over 83% of the previously agreed upon milling wheat exports.

  • The market also contemplates whether Russia will at some point restrict their wheat exports.

  • Egypt’s GASC is possibly changing some credit terms for its wheat buying process.

  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 4 ¾ carry, K/N 6 ¾ carry......Kansas City H/K at 9 carry, K/N 9 ¼…WH/K 5 3/4 and K/N 5 ¼ carry 

Outlook: Lightly mixed trade expected in a relatively tight trading range