Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • 2nd day of US/China trade talks while the market waits for any sort of news from day one.
  • Weekly export sales out today are expected to be from December 20th. Cron at 1.7mmt, beans at 2.4 mmt and wheat at 526 tmt.
  • China’s Purchasing Managers Index for January came in at 49.5, up 0.1 from December but still below the benchmark reading of 50.0.
  • Energy markets are mostly higher this morning with crude oil back over $54/barrel.
  • The US$ continues its trek lower and gold is up 12 bucks at $1,325. 

Corn

  • The corn market traded lower overnight continuing its 1-2-cent trading range. The March failed to hold above $3.80.
  • Weekly export sales are expected to be decent.
  • Basis feels firmer on lack of movement from the extremely cold temps across much of the US Midwest.
  • Brazil expected to see more rain showers next week. Temperatures are not expected to be too high.
  • Spreads: H/K 8 ½ carry, K/N 7 ¾ carry, N/U 2 carry, N/Z 6 ¼ carry.....Z/N 19 carry. 

Outlook:   Choppy two-sided trade ahead of trade talks, SA weather and export sales 

Oilseeds

  • The soybean market chops back and forth ahead of trade talks and any sort of sign that China will buy mega amounts of US soybeans.
  • Forecasts call for more rain events across Brazil next week but yield reports are still coming in light.Farmers look to halt sales pending higher prices from additional crop losses.
  • April palm oil closed lower at 2,299 ringgit.
  • Spreads: H/K 13 ¾-14 carry, H/X 38 ¼-39 carry. 

Outlook: Choppy ahead of weekly export sales, news from trade talks and SA weather 

Wheat

  • The wheat market was mixed overnight with Mpls up a penny, KC down nearly a penny and Chicago up ½ cent. Current frigid temperatures across the northern plains has stalled wheat movement.
  • The KC market tests support at $5 and Mpls holds above $5.70 for the moment.
  • Day 2 of the “Big Chill” across the US stirs some concern about possible damage to the winter wheat crop, especially that which is not under a decent blanket of snow.
  • Ukraine raises their 2018 wheat crop to 35.6 mmt, up from 24.1 mmt in 2017.
  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 3-3 ½ carry, Kansas City H/K 9 ¾-10 carry and Chicago H/K 5 ½-6 carry. 

Outlook: Choppy trade as the market waits for fresh news