2/1/2019 7:28:53 AM
- This week’s trade talks were thought to be positive with comment that there has been much progress made toward resolving structural issues. Comments were that there is a lot of work left to do to totally resolve trade differences and discussions are expected to continue over the next thirty days. The March 1 deadline is still in place.
- Energy markets are mixed this morning with crude oil slightly lower, trading below $54/barrel.
- The US$ and CD$ are weaker and gold is stronger. The DJIA and the S&P are weaker.
- The market awaits key USDA data that is scheduled for release next Friday at 11 AM CST (January final production numbers, Dec 1 grain stocks, 2019 winter wheat seedings and the FEB updated world and US balance tables).
- The corn market traded higher in sympathy with the bean market. Gains were limited from increased crop ideas in Argentina.
- March corn traded back to its 50-Day MA of $3.78 ½. The corn market traded in a 2-3- cent range.
- Spreads: H/K 8 ¾ carry, K/N 7 ½ carry, N/U 2 ¾ carry, Z/N 20 carry.
Outlook: rangebound trade continues ahead of next week’s USDA data
- The soybean market poked higher overnight on what was thought to be successful trade talks between the US and China.
- After the close yesterday there was a Chinese announcement that they plan to buy 5.0 mmt of US beans.
- South Korea bought 95k tonnes of non-GMO soybeans. No other details were reported.
- Spreads: H/K 14 carry, H/N 26 ¾ carry, H/X 40 ¼ carry, X/N 24 carry.
Outlook: Rising futures on renewed hopes for more Chinese business
- The wheat market traded higher on strength in the beans and corn markets overnight.
- Russia’s ag consultancy raised their 2019 wheat estimate to 80.0 mmt (+2.7 mmt from their previous estimate) because of favorable weather conditions, including lots of snow cover.
- The lowest offer in Ethiopia’s tender to purchase up to 400k tonnes of optional origin wheat was at $270/tonne C&F.
- Cold weather continues next week for the Southern Plains area.
- Spreads: Mpls H/K back out to 4 cents, Kansas City H/K at 9 ¾, and Chicago H/K at 5 ¼ carry.
Outlook: higher on cold weather in the winter wheat and action in the row crops