Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Four lawmakers say they have agreed in principle to a plan to avoid another government shutdown and partially fund border security.
  • CME grain markets will be closed next Monday for President’s Day.  Following a regular close this Friday, February 15th, the grain markets will not re-open until Monday night, February 18th, at 7:00pm CT.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00am CT: Dollar down .112 at 96.961, Crude Oil up $1.10 at $53.51, Dow up 191 at 25208 and Gold up $4.90 at $1316.80. 

Corn

  • CONAB estimated their corn crop at 91.652mmt, up 460tmt from their January estimate.  They lowered their first crop estimate, but increased the Safrinha (second crop corn) estimate.Currently USDA is at 94.5mmt.
  • The RFS has helped reduce greenhouse gasses much more than anticipated, according to a new study by Life Cycle Associates.  Currently, the EPA is evaluating the E15 proposal.
  • Minnesota sold more than 59 mil/gal of E15 last year, almost 3 times the amount sold in 2017 when there were only 14 retailers offering it.  Over 300 retailers are offering it currently.
  • Two South Korea feed makers bought a total of 203tmt in a tender that closed yesterday.  At least some of it is expected to be sourced from South America. 

Outlook:  Some corn contracts broke uptrend line support yesterday, but overnight trade has brought them back above it. 

Oilseeds

  • CONAB reduced their estimate of Brazil’s soybean production by 3.5mmt to 115.3mmt, lowering yields 3%.  Currently the USDA is projecting 117mmt.
  • IMEA, in Matto Grosso, the largest soybean producing state in Brazil, estimated that state’s soybean harvest is 53% complete.
  • Soybean inspections yesterday were 1063tmt, slightly below the previous week’s 1091tmt.  China accounted for almost half of the total.
  • Yesterday morning, USDA announced a sale of 120tmt soymeal to Ecuador, half for 2018/19 and half for 2019/20. 

Outlook: Soybeans are rebounding in overnight trade and avoiding a test of nearby uptrend support lines. 

Wheat

  • Russia’s Ag Ministry said they do not plan to restrict exports, but are going to create a new grain exporters union by April.
  • Several KC wheat months made new contract lows in yesterday’s trade, but managed to close back up near their daily highs.
  • Yesterday, USDA announced a sale of 120tmt SRW wheat to Egypt and a 128tmt sale of HRW wheat to Nigeria, both for this marketing year.
  • Algeria tendered for 50tmt of wheat.  Japan issued a tender for 113tmt wheat and Tunisia tendered to buy 92tmt Durum and 100tmt soft wheat.
  • The MPLS March/May spread rallied 4 ¾ cents yesterday to close at a 4 ¼ cent inverse. 

Outlook: Paris Milling Wheat broke trendline support that goes back to March 2018; it needs to recover soon to avoid a larger sell-off.