4/15/2019 5:55:51 AM
- The new Farm Bill has increased the amounts that producers can borrow through USDA’s FSA. In addition, Congress is debating a disaster aid package that would cover natural disasters that have occurred the past two years; the House version is said to include coverage for stored grain lost in recent floods.Congress will return from recess on April 29th.
- Grain markets will close at their regular 1:20pm CT on Thursday and will not re-open until Sunday night, April 21st, at 7:00pm CT in observance of Good Friday holiday.
- Outside markets as of 7:00am CT: Dollar down .023 at 96.827, Crude Oil down $.58 at $63.31, Dow up 15 at 26423 and Gold down $6.30 at $1288.90.
- Funds have established a new record large short position in corn futures. The CIT report on Friday shows they added over 24,000 short positions to be net short 294.3k contracts as of last Tuesday.
- The EPA has taken a step toward releasing the names of refineries that have applied for and received biofuel waivers, by opening a comment period on the confidentiality rule.
- Ethanol prices in central Brazil jumped to new record highs because of recent heavy rains that have hindered production from sugarcane, and also because of low inventories.
- China’s Ag Ministry announced they will begin a possibly year-long review on considering removing DDG tariffs.
Outlook: Corn prices have found some footing of late, but will be watching planting progress and weather forecasts for signs of further delays.
- The NOPA crush report will be released at 11:00am CT. The current estimate is that 168.03 mbu of soybeans was crushed in March.
- China imported 4.92 mmt of soybeans in March, up from 4.46 mmt in February, but some analysts think the 1% drop in their VAT to 9% as of the first of April encouraged delaying shipments.
- China is lowering the subsidy for planting soybeans in their top-producing province Heilongjiang, by 10%. The subsidy for planting corn will be raised, slowing their recent trend toward promoting soybean planting over corn.
Outlook: Trade continues in it’s downtrend waiting for any additional news.
- In Friday’s snap tender, Egypt’s GASC bought 240 tmt of wheat, 180 tmt Romanian and 60 tmt from Ukraine, for May 20th to June 5th shipment, at prices over $8/tonne less than their previous tender.
- Planting progress for Spring wheat was only 1% last week compared to the 5 year average of 4%, with little progress expected on this afternoon’s report due to last week’s snowstorm.
- The May/July wheat spreads have strengthened for all 3 classes of wheat in overnight futures trade.
Outlook: Little news so far to break wheat out of their recent patterns. Traders will consider Spring wheat planting progress and forecasts, but conditions remain positive for winter wheat growth.