Morning Highlights


Highlights                

  • The Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas HRW wheat tour is on the second day.Scouts will be traveling from Colby to Wichita KS.
  • Upper Mississippi water levels rising again this week. Navigation will be impaired or slowed the next two weeks.Midwest forecasts remain wet this week.
  • Chinese authorities have approved the import of Argentine pork.
  • The Fed will release its monthly policy statement today.
  • EPA reaffirmed its findings that glyphosate is not a carcinogen, consistent with scientific reviews.
  • White House officials say ‘ready to walk if no China trade deal soon’.
  • “Every day we go lower, we get closer to the bottom”-old trader’s quote.
  • Today May 1st is International Labor Day.

     

  • Grain Hedging classes by CHS Hedging offered June 25th. Energy Risk Classes offered June 19th.
  • U. S. Dollar index -.147 @ 97.373, Dow futures +76 @ 26,660, Crude Oil futures -.33 @ $63.59.

        

Corn

  • Rains continue across the Midwest, bringing planting activity to a halt in most areas.
  • University of Illinois estimates for corn yield loss when late plantings occur: after May 10 – 5% yield decline, after May 20 – 9% yield decline, after May 30 – 14% yield decline.
  • CIF corn basis firming this week on lower flat price, river logistics, and light farmer selling.

 Outlook: even with a lower US dollar yesterday, corn had trouble standing. The market finally came back up for air at the close. Guess that’s a good sign! Overnight trade has CN19 and CZ19 both higher, back above the 10 day averages for a positive start.  Calls: 2-3 better

 

Oilseeds

  • Brazil bean harvest is almost complete, 97% harvested.Argentine bean harvest should be close to 60% complete.
  • May and July bean meal futures cracked below the $300/ton mark this week.
  • SN19 hit new contract lows at $8.51 ¼ before settling at $8.54.

 

Outlook: yes, beans were still struggling, giving back early upticks for lower direction through most of the session. A poor close for the end of the month reinforces the bad technical vibes on the charts. The downward spiral continues. Beans have basically retraced back to last July lows – the immediate sell-off from the China trade issues. Calls: flat/steady

 

 Wheat

  • Kansas wheat tour results from day one surveys had the average yield calculated at 46.9 bpa. The tour’s 5 year average for the first day route is 39.5 bpa.Groups from Colorado put their yield estimate at 46.5 bpa, with Nebraska yields at 44 bpa.
  • Paris milling wheat futures were down to 175 Euro/ton, matching last year’s contract lows.
  • Chicago and Minneapolis deliveries recirculating, no deliveries for KC May again.
  • Another session of new lows for KWN19, WN19 and MWU19.
  • Weekly deliverable stocks report:KC 97.4 mil bu [-1.636 mil, LY 105.3 mil,Chi 46.0 mil bu [-3.297 mil, LY 69.7 mil,MGEX 15.3 mil bu [-230k bu, LY 20.4 mil].

Outlook: deliveries, and wheat tour, and moisture all combined for lower trade across the wheat complex again. HRW feeding potential about the only thing to find to talk about. Some southwest areas calling wheat under 94% the value of corn, making this pencil for summer months. Large decline in SRW deliverable stocks last week, then it reloads with large deliveries.  Perhaps first of the month buying will support values?  Calls: 3-4 better