Morning Highlights


Highlights                

  • The Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas HRW tour is on the final day.Scouts will be traveling from Wichita back to Manhattan, KS.Final tour results and projected Kansas HRW production will be disclosed this afternoon.
  • With many markets around the world on holiday, grain markets were very quiet yesterday.
  • River stage at St. Louis predicted to raise 2 ½ ft by Monday.Flooding remains an issue on the Illinois and Mississippi rivers.
  • China has suspended pork imports from two Canadian companies, customs officials say.

     

  • Grain Hedging classes by CHS Hedging offered June 25th. Energy Risk Classes offered June 19th.
  • U. S. Dollar index -.010 @ 97.605, Dow futures +3 @ 26,392, Crude Oil futures -.89 @ $62.71.

        

Corn

  • Weekly ethanol production dropped 24,000 to 1,024,000 bpd.Ethanol inventories were unchanged at 22.7 mil barrels.Ethanol margins were said to be 3-4 cents lower this past week.
  • CN19 managed to hold gains above its 10 day moving average yesterday, and late buying pushed it above the 20 day moving average [$3.66] with a good technical settlement at $3.68 ½.
  • CZ19 also closed above its 20 day moving average [$3.85]. Technical momentum has remained to the upside this week.
  • USDA weekly corn export sales total 586,000 tons old crop and 209,000 tons new crop.  Milo sales were 185,000 tons, mostly China and unknown.

 Outlook: mild short-covering supported the corn market for most of the session. The short structure in the corn market is starting lift values this week. There’s no rush to buy corn, unless you’re a nervous short.  Weather isn’t in your favor, and a lot of technical buying can easily generate a reason for a bid. Calls: steady

 

Oilseeds

  • The Canadian government will offer assistance to canola producers due to the China trade dispute, in the form of direct payments and loans.China has recently blocked the import of canola from two Canadian companies.
  • SN19 slides below $8.50, sets new lows, and settles at $8.51 ¾ .SX19 virtually matched the contract low set back in early July last year.
  • USDA weekly bean export sales totaled 313,000 tons. 

 

Outlook: the beating continued in the bean complex yesterday. However, trade did manage to close up off the lows for the day, as corn and wheat traded firmer. The bean story remains one of oversupply.   Calls: mixed/lower

 

 Wheat

  • Kansas wheat tour results from day two surveys had the average yield calculated at 47.6 bpa, bringing the tour average to 47.2 bpa.
  • A common theme from the tour was that HRW looked behind in development in some areas due to later planting. It’s drier in the western Kansas counties, and could use a bit more moisture to fill out. But overall stands and potential are better than last year.
  • USDA weekly wheat export sales were 122,000 tons old crop, 297,000 tons new crop.
  • Chicago [Toledo] and MGEX [Duluth] deliveries continue to recirculate. For HRS, Wells Fargo has stopped back 441 of the 924 contracts originally put out by CHS.No deliveries for KC HRW.

Outlook: all wheat classes were able to hold above their previous day’s lows yesterday. Late in the session, WN19 found buying above the previous high, and finally made a decent higher close.  HRW is finding a glimmer of new demand at the expense of corn/milo in the southwest feed markets, so perhaps futures have gone low enough. And no HRW deliveries again. With the highest basis and lowest futures flat price, seems odd? But with KWN/N20 showing -82 board carry, that’s pinching close to .07/bu a month! That’s the market for HRW again, storage.  Calls: 2-4 better