5/3/2019 7:18:17 AM
- The Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas HRW tour put out a production estimate of 307 mil bushels for KS HRW this year.
- The St. Louis Miss River harbor is expected to close all next week due to high water.River levels projected to rise to 42.6 feet by May 6th, another 4 ft above current level.St. Louis levels need to be under 38 ft for barge traffic activity.
- The CME issued a declaration of ‘force majeure’ at corn and bean shipping stations due to flooding and load-out impossibility.
- 6-10 day forecasts call for cooler temps and above normal precipitation for central and eastern US corn belt.
- Monthly employment report is out this morning.
- Grain Hedging classes by CHS Hedging offered June 25th. Energy Risk Classes offered June 19th.
- U. S. Dollar index +.152 @ 97.982, Dow futures +62 @ 26,327, Crude Oil futures -.13 @ $61.68.
- With little other news besides the weather causing massive planting delays, next Monday’s planting progress for corn will be key.The 5 year average for corn planted at this time is 46%. Most market ideas today are venturing it will show 25-26% complete.
- Argentine corn harvest reported 31% complete from BAGE.Very good yields reported.
Outlook: corn again found buying interest, and holding power above the 20 day moving average. Corn has a friendly technical setup, however upticks may lessen the closer we see CZ19 get to $3.90 – that’s the 50 day average and the 10 week average on the weekly chart. Calls: mixed to 1 lower
- SX19 new contract lows to $8.63 ¾ . Also new lows in meal SMN19 to $296.60/ton.
- Bean open interest was up 11,480 contracts yesterday.
- BAGE reports Argentine bean harvest at 59% complete, vs 62% LY.Rains have slowed harvest in some areas.
- Current marketing year shipments of US beans to China stand at 5.6 mil tons, versus last year at 26.5 mil ton.
- Bean deliveries continue to recirulate.
Outlook: back to contract lows again for beans in Nov, the holes in the bucket are getting bigger. The death spiral continues. Beans are the ‘lead zeppelin’ of the grain markets. Beans have been lower each day this week, so some end of the week buying may be the starting point this morning. Calls: 1-2 better
- WN19/KWN19 pushed above +41 cents yesterday.That is the widest premium of Chicago to KC in July futures going back to at least 1978.
- The Wheat Tour’s final yield estimate came in at 47.2 bpa, with total KS HRW production guessed to be 307 mil bushels.USDA has Kansas planted acres at 7.0 mil. The 5 year tour average yield guess has been 40.2 bpa.
- Texas and Oklahoma still grazing a lot of cattle on wheat pasture.Southwest feedyards looking at feed wheat for summer needs this week.
- Colder temps may be instore for Northern Europe this weekend, which could threaten wheat there.
- Texas gulf export HRW basis down 5 to 10 cents this week.
Outlook: Chicago wheat took off early to the upside, as technical buying kicked in above the WN19 10 day moving average. MWN19 also got a boost of buying above its 10 day average. There was talk that 302 of the over 1,000 contracts SRW delivered in Toledo were canceled for loadout yesterday. Perhaps added some strength under Chicago wheat? 325 of the Duluth HRS receipts were also canceled yesterday. Calls: 1-3 lower