Morning Highlights


Highlights                                 

  • The U.S. government released proposed tariff aid payments of $2/bu for soybeans, 63 cents/bu for wheat, and 4 cents/bu for corn, which could be announced Thursday. The USDA stressed that the program is “being designed to avoid skewing planting decisions,” which may hint at the crop results that will be used.
  • The Federal will release the minutes from their latest policy meeting this afternoon. St Louis Fed President Bullard recently said the Fed may have “slightly overdone it,” when they raised interest rates in December.
  • GlobalDairyTrade’s Price Index was down 1.2% in yesterday’s auction. Whole milk powder fell 2.1% and butter fell 3.2%, while cheddar jumped 15.2% higher!
  • Cold Storage will be released today at 2pm CT.
  • As of 7:00 am CT, crude oil is down 66 cents to $62.47/barrel, gold is up 3.10 at $1,276.30, DOW down 101 to 25,774, dollar index down 24, and Euro is up 95 pts.

Corn

  • Monday was the first time July corn settled above its 200 day moving average since June 2018. It is now being tested as support at 3.86 ¾.
  • Corn futures have closed higher for 7 consecutive days.
  • CN/CU traded from -8 ¼ to -9 ¼ overnight, and CU/CZ traded from -7 ½ to -9 ¼.
  • Brazil’s corn lineup is at an unusually high 1.5 MMT, with increases to North Africa and the Far East.

Outlook:  July futures up 2 to down 8 overnight.. markets seem to be correcting yesterday’s trade until we get more details about the MFP payments.

 

Oilseeds

  • A USDA official said it may take as long as 8 years before an effective African Swine Fever vaccine is found.
  • China’s Dalian soybeans were down 5 ¼ overnight, soymeal up 0.90, and soyoil down 30.
  • Argentina’s April soy crush was up 13% from last year to 3.8 MMT.
  • Brazil’s soybean lineup is at 7.2 MMT vs 8.5 MMT a year ago, and the meal lineup is 1.4 MMT vs 1.1 MMT.

Outlook:  July beans down 3 to up 8 ½ overnight.. with the U.S. and China no closer to a deal, the last thing the market needs is more bean acres.                 

 

Wheat

  • Forecasts still show as much as 8 inches of rain possible for parts of Kansas over the next few days.
  • After failing to settle above its 100 day moving average the past two days, July Chicago wheat met strong resistance there again overnight. Monday was the first time KC July wheat settled above its 50 day moving average since January. It is now being tested as support, at 4.27.
  • The Philippines bought 45,000 MT of feed wheat for FH Sep at $240-$245/MT C&F. Jordan is tendering to buy 120,000 MT of optional origin wheat, with a May 28 deadline.
  • Coceral estimates the EU soft wheat crop at 140.3 MMT, up from 139.8 MMT. MARS estimates EU soft wheat yield at 6.05 tons/hectare, up from 6.01 t/ha last month.

Outlook:  July KC wheat up 4 ½ to down 7 ¾ overnight..  Chicago is leading the way lower, so it may be more of a technical move today, as well as pressure from corn.