5/23/2019 7:08:38 AM
- The USDA will hold a press conference at 10:30am CT regarding MFP payments, with a statement from President Trump following at 3:15pm CT. There is speculation that payments will be based on a county payment rate and 2019 planting not exceeding 2018 plantings. U.S. Ag Secretary Perdue says the aid package will total $16 billion. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the USDA has extended the MFP deadline from May 17 to May 31.
- Equity markets are falling, with DOW futures down 245, as the U.S. looks to blacklist more Chinese companies, and Chinese citizens boycott some U.S. products. One Chinese company sent a memo requiring their employees to boycott American phones, cars, and restaurants.
- The Federal Reserve says it will use a “patient” approach to interest rates, seeing an improving economy and lower inflation. However, 71% of analyst in a Bloomberg poll expect rates to be cut by the end of 2019
- April Cold Storage showed cheese stocks up 1% from March and up 4% from 2018. Butter stocks were up 8% from March, but down 5% from a year ago. Beef was down 9%, and pork down 2% from last year.
- As of 7:00 am CT, crude oil is down 1.06 cents to $60.36/barrel, gold is up 3.50 at $1,277.70, DOW down 244 to 25,527, dollar index up 103, and Euro is down 250 pts.
- Weekly corn export sales totaled 442,100 MT vs 200-600k MT estimates.
- China’s grain imports were up 75% year-over-year in April to 1.65 MMT. China’s beef imports were also up 75% YoY in April and are now up 50% through the first 4 months of 2019.
- After trading to even yesterday, the CZ19/CZ20 spread traded -1/2 to 1 1/2 inverse overnight.
- Weekly ethanol production was up 20,000 barrels/day to 1.07 million bpd. Ethanol stocks were up 1.15 million barrels to 23.4 million.
Outlook: July futures down 1 ¼ to up 2 ½ overnight.. market is still supported by a wet 7 day forecast and ideas of 4 million less corn acres.
- Weekly soybean export sales were 535,800 MT old crop and 5,100 MT new crop vs 0-400k MT and 100-400k MT estimates. Meal exports were 188,000 MT old crop and 112,000 MT new crop vs 50-300k MT and 25-100k MT estimates.
- China’s Dalian soybeans were down 2 overnight, soymeal up 0.50, and soyoil down 30. Malaysian palm oil futures fell another 41, now down 82 ringgits on the week.
- Cofeed’s weekly Chinese soybean crush was up 15.8% from last week and up 22% from a year ago to 1.94 MMT.
Outlook: July beans down 5 to up 5 ½ overnight.. two-sided trade overnight, as we have settled into trading range over the past week.
- Weekly wheat export sales were 48,400 MT old crop and 344,900 MT new crop vs -100 – 200k MT and 100-500k MT estimates.
- AgCanada raised their old crop wheat export estimate by 200k MT to 23 MMT and new crop exports by 550k MT to 23.65 MMT. They also raised planted area by 200,000 hectares to 10.42M hectares.
- Russian wheat exports have been slow in May and will likely be less than 900k MT vs 1.86 MMT in April. The Russian Ag Ministry left their wheat production unchanged at 75 MMT and lowered exports by 1 MMT to 36 MMT.
- China’s wheat imports are up 23% to 1.25 MMT through the first 4 months of 2019.
Outlook: July KC wheat down 3 ¾ to up 6 ½ overnight.. following corn and weather.