5/24/2019 7:11:38 AM
- The USDA says MFP will be $16 billion, 14.5 billion of which will be paid directly to the farmer in 3 installments, with the second and third payments listed as “if conditions warrant.” The payments will be a single rate per county for all commodities, not per commodity as previously leaked, and based on trade damage per county. That county rate will be multiplied by the producer’s aggregate 2019 acreage. Prevent plant acres will not receive a payment. Dairy producers will receive a per hundredweight payment based on historical production. AMS will purchase $1.4 billion in surplus commodities, including beef, pork, and milk.
- Theresa May announced she will resign as British Prime Minister, effective June 7, after failing to secure a Brexit deal. Most of the potential Prime Minister candidates will now want a tougher Brexit deal with the EU. The British pound is up 35 points overnight.
- A Trump/Xi meeting at the G20 summit in June appears to still be up in the air.
- The U.S. government says it will place tariffs on any country that devalues its currency. Although no country currently meets the criteria, this could potentially expand the trade war.
- May Cattle on Feed will be released today at 2pm CT. Estimates are on feed 103%, placed 113%, and marketed 107%.
- Markets are closed Sunday night and Monday in observance of Memorial Day. Trading will resume Monday night at 7pm CT. CHS Hedging offices will be close at 3:00pm CT today.
- As of 7:00 am CT, crude oil is up 58 cents to $58.49/barrel, gold is down 3.50 at $1,281.90, DOW up 117 to 25,580, dollar index down 30, and Euro is up 30 pts.
- Forecasts are still extremely wet, with much of the Corn Belt expecting another 2-7 inches of rain over the next 2 weeks.
- The CZ19/CZ20 spread traded from -4 ¾ to -1 overnight, after a range of 2 ½ inverse to 7 cent carry yesterday.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says Argentine’s corn harvest is 36.1% complete vs 37% 5 year average, and left their production estimate unchanged at 48 MMT.
Outlook: July futures flat to up 6 overnight.. correcting yesterday’s MFP related trade. The farmer will have difficult planting decisions that will vary case-by-case. The market is not at all sure what planted acreage to use at this point.
- Brazilian soybean premiums are on the rise, at +120 July FOB, which translates to about +145 SN19 PNW vs U.S. offers at +80 SN19 FOB
- China’s Dalian soybeans were down 1 ½ overnight, soymeal down 2.60, and soyoil down 18.
- BAGE reports Argentina’s soybean harvest is 85% complete vs 80.3% last year. Their production estimate was unchanged at 56 MMT.
July beans down 1 ½ to up 5 ¾ overnight.. the government did not give a date that the MFP county payment rates will be announced, but soybean payments will be much less than the $2.00/bu that was previously in the news.
- SovEcon estimates Russian grain exports of 49.4 MMT in 2019/20, including 38.2 MMT of wheat.
- BAGE reports Argentina’s wheat crop is 3.1% planted, a slower start due to rain. They estimate 6.4 million hectares will be planted, up 200,000 from last year.
- Saskatchewan spring wheat is 80% planted vs 70% last year and a 59% 5 year average.
- Ukraine’s Ag Ministry is reducing their number of wheat classes from 6 to 4, effective June 10.
Outlook: July KC wheat down 3 ½ to up 7 ¼ overnight.. following corn and weather.