Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Export Inspections will be released today at 10:00 am; Crop Progress will be released at 3:00 pm central time.
  • There is a USDA Supply and Demand report out tomorrow at 11:00 am central time.
  • At last look the US Dollar index was up 0.341 to 96.885 points.
  • The Dow Jones mini futures are up 134 points overnight to 26,141.
  • The energy markets moved higher overnight. Nearby crude is up $0.24 to $54.23 per barrel.

    Corn

  • The corn market moved lower overnight on thoughts of good corn planting progress over the weekend, as well as further threats of more tariffs against Mexico.
  • Late on Friday afternoon, the US and Mexico reached an agreement over immigration issues, thus removing the threat of tariffs that were set to go into effect today. However, President Trump has threatened the tariffs again if the Mexican legislative body does not ratify the new proposal.
  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed corn specs bought a total of 90,000 contracts, flipping their position from short to a total long of 65,000 contracts.
  • Rains over the weekend missed much of Iowa and northern Missouri, while up to ¼ inch of rain fell on northern and southern Illinois. Rain continued to hit Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. Analysts are looking for corn planting to be reported at 80-85% complete compared to last week’s 67%. Historically US corn planting is all but wrapped up by now.
  • Chinese corn futures were up 3 cents overnight.
  • Spreads: N/U 8 ½ cent carry, N/Z 18 ¼ cent carry, Z/H 8 ¾ cent carry, Z/N 15 cent carry.

    Outlook: Choppy to lower off the open as traders await the USDA Crop Progress report.

    Oilseeds

  • The soybean market moved lower overnight on thoughts of less Chinese Demand and good planting progress this weekend as well.
  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed soybean specs bought in another 26,800 contracts bringing their net position to short 108,100 contracts.
  • For the month of May, Chinese soybean imports fell 24% year over year as the trade war and ASF continue to impact the market. The Chinese have imported 31.75 mmt of soybeans so far in 2019.
  • Analysts are looking for soybean plantings to come in around 55-57% complete this week, compared to last week’s 39% and the 5 year average of 93%.
  • Malaysian palm oil was down 34 ringgits to 1,994 ringgits to start the week off. Chinese soybean futures were down 6 cents overnight.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ¾ cent carry, Q/U 7 cent carry, U/X 13 ¼ cent carry, X/N 43 cent carry.

    Outlook: Continue to see pressured trade in the soybean complex as planting progresses but talks with the Chinese do not.

    Wheat

  • The wheat market moved lower on technical selling as July Chicago wheat gets pushed below the $5.00 level again overnight.
  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed wheat specs bought in 6,600 contracts, bringing their position to net short 56,700 contracts.
  • This weekend brought rain to Northern North Dakota, which had entered the early stages of drought last week. Rain’s of up to 4” are forecasted to hit Eastern Kansas and Oklahoma ahead of this year’s HRW harvest.
  • Egypt’s Supply ministry has released a statement that they have 5 months of strategic wheat reserves. So far this year they have procured 3.15 mmt of local wheat.
  • Iraq has purchased 2.5 mmt of wheat from their local farmers this year.
  • Spreads: N/U Chicago 5 ¼ cent carry, KC 13 ¼ cent carry, Mpls 9 cent carry.

Outlook: Lower off the open in sympathy with corn and soybeans.