Morning Highlights


“if market volatility persists it may also impact July options expiration and futures delivery cycles… please be diligent in managing these risks over the next couple weeks.”

 

Highlights

  • Two more cases of African Swine Fever were detected in China.
  • China’s president heads to North Korea to access positive measures with North Korea and their nuclear program. The last time Chinese leadership was in North Korea was 14 years ago.
  • The USDA’s updated acreage and June 1 grain stocks report is scheduled for June 28th at 11 AM CDT. Next week is the end of the month of June and the end of another quarter.
  • July options expiration is at the close tomorrow. FND for July futures is Friday June 28th.
  • Energy markets are mostly stronger with crude oil up 1.88 at $55.64/barrel.
  • The US$ is down 509 at 96.60, gold is up 36-37 bucks at $1,382/ounce and the CD$ is slightly higher at 0.7601.
  • The DJIA is up 38 at 26504, and the S&P is up 28 at 2957. 

Corn

  • Corn prices were slightly lower on lack of fresh news.The market awaits updates on how many intended acres did not or will not get planted this year.
  • Weekly export sales were disappointing at 399tmt.
  • The recent high of $4.64 ¼, made on Monday is viewed as overdone for now. Next week’s crop conditions report may provide some support to the corn market if it does not indicate that the crop is improving.
  • Weather for parts of the Midwest look wet for the balance of this week and into the weekend with a drier pattern developing early next week.
  • Spreads: N/U 5 ¾ carry, U/Z 7 ½ carry, Z/H 5 ¾ carry, Z/N 8 ¾ carry, N0/Z0 48 inverse.  

Outlook: higher trade with a little wetter picture in the forecast and a weaker US$ 

Oilseeds

  • Soybean prices were softer overnight on improving weather forecasts for parts of the US Midwest. Farmers are still planting beans.
  • Losses were limited on hopes of positive results from the US/Chinese trade talks at next week’s meeting.
  • Weekly export sales were 772 tmt in line with trade estimates. Meal sales were 148 tmt and oil sales were 4 tmt.
  • September palm oil closed down 23 at 2023 ringgit
  • China markets were quietly mixed with beans up 4 ½ cents, meal down 1.70 and soyoil down 19 points.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ¾ carry, Q/X 19 ¾ carry, X/F 12 ¼ carry, X9/N0 22 ¾ carry. 

Outlook: lower overnight although prices turned higher on a weaker US$ and a bit wetter outlook 

Wheat

  • The wheat market was mixed overnight with KC and Chicago 3-4 cents lower while Mpls is only ½ cent lower. Mpls gained on KC.
  • Weekly export sales were dismal at 188 tmt.
  • Weather shows more rain for the HRW harvest activity and a bit wetter for the Northern Plains and Canada this week and into the weekend. Some models are now showing less amounts of total rainfall for these areas.
  • Bangladesh makes plans to import 100k tonnes of Russian wheat. Purchases of wheat have been increasing as their people shift from expensive rice to less expensive wheat.
  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 6 ¾ carry, U/Z 12 ¼ carry, Kansas City N/U 11 ½ carry. Mpls July is at an 87 cent premium over KC. 

Outlook: lower trade on poor demand