Morning Highlights


“if market volatility persists it may also impact July options expiration and futures delivery cycles… please be diligent in managing these risks over the next couple weeks.”

 

Highlights

  • July options expire at the close today. First Notice Day for July futures is next Friday, with all long positions being reported after the close on Thursday, June 27th.
  • The May Cattle on Feed report is scheduled for release today after the close.
  • StatsCan is expected to release their updated acreage number next Wednesday.
  • The USDA is scheduled to release their update acreage and June 1 grains stocks reports next Friday at 11 AM CDT.
  • Energy markets are stronger, The US$ is off a freckle, gold is slightly higher, and stocks are on the defensive. 

Corn

  • The corn market opened higher on weather and crop worries. Prices turned lower on profit taking and position squaring ahead of next week’s USDA data.
  • Cash markets firm on lack of movement.Hearing processor and some feed
  • Spreads: N/U 4 ¼ carry, U/Z 5 ½ carry, Z/H 5 ½ carry, N0/Z0 52 ½ inverse. 

Outlook: choppy ahead of the weekend and next week’s USDA data 

Oilseeds

  • The soybean market traded lower on a bout of profit taking after yesterday’s rally.While concerns remain about weather, crop loss and yield, the market appears to have begun to even up positions ahead of next week’s USDA data and the G20 summit where the Us and Chinese presidents are expected to meet.
  • September palm oil was down 1 at 2,022 ringgit, after failing to break through 2,040.
  • China beans were 5 ¼ cents lower.
  • South Korea bought 60k tons of Brazilian soymeal.
  • StatsCan pegs their 2019/20 canola acres at 20.7 million down from last year on rift between Canada and China over canola shipments.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ¼ carry, Q/X 19 ¼ carry, X/F 12 ¼ carry, X/N 30 carry. 

Outlook: Choppy ahead of weekend weather 

Wheat

  • The wheat market traded lower on spillover weakness in the row crops. Forecasts call for rain events across North Dakota and the Canadian Prairies over the next few days.
  • VSR for KC was last at 72.6% of full carry for July/Sep. I believe today is the last day of the calculation period.The Chicago N/U was last at 35.9% of full carry.
  • StatsCan acreage report is scheduled for release next Wednesday. Their Acreage estimate is 25.7 million acres for all wheat (25.2-26.3) (correction from yesterday afternoon’s comments, my apologies). This compares to 24.73 million acres planted last year.
  • Russia, Ukraine and Europe are all seeing hot/dry weather for the next several days.
  • Harvest has begun in Russia with early reports of good yields.
  • Hot/dry weather continues for Russia, Ukraine and Europe over the next several days.
  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 7 ¼ carry, U/Z 12 ¼ carry, Kansas City N/U 10 ½ carry, U/U 70 ½ carry. 

Outlook: lower trade following row crop weakness