Morning Highlights


  

Highlights

  • USDA planted acres and June 1 stocks report on Friday, June 28th , 11 am CDT.

  • First Notice Day for July futures is this Friday, with all long positions being reported after the close on Thursday, June 27th.

  • StatsCan is expected to release their updated acreage number on Wednesday June 26, 7:30 am.

  • Nymex crude oil is slightly higher, the US$ index is slightly lower and DOW futures are slightly higher.   

     

Corn

  • The corn market is higher on weather concerns as the US crop remains behind in development and continues to see adverse weather. The central United States from E. Kansas through S. Indiana received relatively heavy rains over the weekend.

  • Crop ratings this afternoon are expected to see little change from last week’s 59% G/E. Emergence should be over 90% versus last week’s 79%.

  • Friday’s commitment of traders as of 6/18 showed managed money net long 144k and the large spec net long 99.5k. Both likely trimmed those positions slightly to end last week.

  • Cash market domestic premiums remain firm amid slow farmer selling.

  • Chinese imports total nearly 2.4mmt, a nearly 42% increase over last year.

  • Spreads are fractionally weaker: N/U 5 ½ carry, U/Z 6 ¼ carry, Z/H 5 ½ carry, N20/Z20 50 inverse.

     

Outlook: Firm as weather remains far from perfect, USDA data at week’s end and many unknowns, like acres.

 

Oilseeds

  • The soybean market is higher as the US continues to be plagued with wet fields as the US farmer continues to struggle to get the soybeans planted. Planting progress is estimated 85-90% complete. The first conditions report of the year will be released this afternoon, three weeks later than last year. Last year was reported at 75% G/E, this year is expected much lower.

  • Friday’s COT showed managed money and large spec funds remain short the complex.

  • USDA planted acres report and June 1 stocks this Friday. Acres could be footnoted with the need to resurvey certain geographies. The June 1 stocks could take on a more pronounced importance.

  • September palm oil was down 24 ringgit, and China’s Dalian soybeans were 6 ¾ cents lower.

  • StatsCan Acres this week:  2019/20 canola acres are expected near 20.7 million, down from last year on the spat between Canada and China over canola shipments.

  • Technically, SX remains above its 200 day MA of $9.24 and has been trading above the past 6 sessions.

  • Spreads: N/Q 5 ¾ carry, Q/X 18 ½ carry, X/F 12 ¼ carry, X/N 29 ½ carry.

 

Outlook: Firm to begin the week as weather remains far from perfect

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market is modestly higher, supported by continuing adverse weather across parts of the Kansas HRW crop. Saturated soils and weekend hail storms aren’t helping. Rain fell across parts of North Dakota’s and Canada’s dry areas, relieving the critical dryness that has been plaguing some areas. This week’s US drought monitor is likely to moderate after last week’s rains.

  • Argentina has been getting good moisture, leading to thoughts that acres could increase.

  • VSR recalculation for KC ended with a running average of 83.42% of full carry, triggering a storage rate increase. The Chicago N/U ended with a running average of 39.7%, indicating no change to the storage rate.

  • StatsCan acreage report is scheduled for release this Wednesday. The acreage estimate is 25.7 million acres for all wheat (25.2-26.3). This compares to 24.73 million acres planted last year.

  • Russia and Ukraine are seeing continuing hot/dry weather early this week before cooler temps and rain chances toward the end of the week. The recent hot/dry weather is expected to shift into other parts of western Europe.

  • Harvest has begun in Russia with early reports of good yields.

  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 8 ¼ carry, U/Z 12 ¼ carry, Kansas City N/U 11 ¾ carry, U/U 73 ¾ carry, WN/U 4 ½ carry.  

     

Outlook: Firm trade as E Kansas continues to see adverse weather