Morning Highlights


 

Highlights

  • USDA planted acres and June 1 stocks report on Friday, June 28th, 11 am CDT.

  • First Notice Day for July futures is this Friday, with all long positions being reported after the close on Thursday, June 27th.

  • StatsCan is expected to release their updated acreage number tomorrow, 7:30 am CDT.

  • Nymex crude oil is slightly weaker, the US$ index is slightly lower and DOW futures are 20 points lower.   

     

Corn

  • The corn market gapped higher after yesterday afternoon’s crop conditions report lowered the crop rating to 56% G/E from 59% G/E last week. Emergence remains behind the 5 year average of 99%, currently sitting at 89% emerged. Planting was reported at 96% complete. Social media wonders 96% of what figure? A Bloomberg survey has an average trade guess at 87 million planted acres.

  • Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor, Inc., lowered his corn production estimate to 12.07 billion bushels and 160bpa yield. He also estimated planted acres at 85.3 million.

  • Managed money is estimated to carry a net long position of 152k. Open interest changes yesterday saw CN down 26,300, CU increased 17,400 and CZ gained 6,800 contracts.

  • Brazil’s corn export lineup is large as they are on pace for record June exports. AgRural estimates safrinha harvest at 19% complete.

  • Cash premiums remain firm in the ECB and also beginning to see end user cash bids firm in the WCB as well. Farmer selling remains muted.

  • Spreads are fractionally mixed: N/U 5 ½ carry, U/Z 5 ¼ carry, Z/H 5 carry, Z/N 7 ¾ carry. N20/Z20 is a 50 cent inverse

     

Outlook: Better as weather remains far from perfect, planted acres is a big unknown and some of those acres have been impacted by standing water. USDA reports on Friday.

 

Oilseeds

  • The soybean market is higher again after the USDA puts US soybean planting at 85%, well behind the 5 year average of 97%. Crop conditions were pegged at 54% G/E, this compares to 73% G/E last year. Precip forecasts show the next 7 days to be relatively quiet and dry with models keeping the most measurable rains in WI and MN.

  • The USDA acres report on Friday has a high probability of a need to resurvey with the wet fields and late planting experienced.

  • Malaysian palm oil was lower overnight and China’s Dalian beans were higher.

  • Managed money remains an estimated net short position on soybeans, soyoil and soymeal.

  • Trade negotiations appear mostly non-existent with China leading up to the G-20 summit and a possible meeting between President Trump and Pres Xi. China’s vice-premier and US negotiators did communicate by phone recently.

  • Crop advisor Cordonnier lowers his soybean production estimate to 3.59 billion and has a yield estimate of 45bpa.

  • StatsCan Acres this week:  2019/20 canola acres are expected near 20.7 million, down from last year.

  • Spreads: N/Q 5 ¼ carry, N/X 22 ¾ carry, X/F 12 ¼ carry, X/N 27 ¾ carry.

 

Outlook: Higher as the weather keeps planting slow.

 

Wheat

  • The wheat markets are higher again, supported by continuing adverse weather and the corn and soy markets.

  • Winter wheat crop ratings saw a seasonal slip to 61% G/E from 64% last week but remains well above last year’s 37%. Weekend hail across parts of the HRW crop didn’t help. Spring wheat is rated 75% G/E.

  • Many reaches of the northern US Plains and Canadian Prairies have received beneficial rains.

  • FOB US wheat values remain well above Black Sea and French offers, making it difficult for the US to compete.

  • Recent hot and dry weather across the Black Sea region is likely to have reduced Russian production, and now the same hot/dry conditions migrate into other parts of Europe.

  • USDA report Friday for June 1 stocks is expecting little change. Ideas on spring wheat acres is varying. Losses in South Dakota are expected but a possible increase in North Dakota and Montana could offset.

  • StatsCan acreage report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The acreage estimate is 25.7 million acres for all wheat (25.2-26.3). This compares to 24.73 million acres planted last year.

  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 9 ¾ carry, U/Z 13 ½ carry, Kansas City N/U 12 carry, N/N 70 ¾ carry, WN/U 3 ¾ carry, N/N only 17 ¼ carry.  

     

Outlook: Firmer trade and possibly getting some direction from corn and soybeans.