7/1/2019 7:02:58 AM
- The USDA quarterly reports from Friday were a whirl-wind for markets.Markets will be closed for the 4th of July holiday this Thursday.
- The Midwest endured its first heat spell over the weekend.And heat was on tap across Europe as well, with record high temps across France.
- US/China trade talks last Saturday, as both sides agree to restart trade negotiations.
- U. S. Dollar index +.276 @ 96.407, Dow futures +257 @ 26,847, Crude Oil futures +1.57 @ $60.03.
- Friday’s CFTC report shows speculative funds net long 148,000 contracts [previous +100k].
- CN19 corn traded up .15 cents at one point, while CZ19 a bit later traded down limit [-.25] for a time, before settling -.19 ½ @ $4.31 ½ .
- USDA June 1 planting intentions pegged acres at 91.7 mil.Trade guestimates had come in pre-report at 86.6 mil!Corn stocks came in at 5.202 bil bushels versus trade estimates at 5.332 bil, and last year at 5.305 bil.
- USDA did announce they were planning to ‘resurvey’ corn acres in 14 states. Results may show up in the August report, and by that time the FSA certification data should also be in play.
- CN/U spread finished Friday at -4 ½ . JP Morgan puts out another 900+ corn contracts versus the July, making for large corn deliveries.
Outlook: Friday was a roller-coaster for the corn market. But really more like a downward spiral of selling to end the month and quarter. Lot’s of ‘disbelief’ spit about on the planted acres number. But likely two different methodologies at USDA in play putting out the monthly numbers and the quarterly numbers, so grin and bear it. Likely there’s still more questions to come, and we’ll get a ‘non-survey’ result from the next round of acres planted. Traders will try to focus on weather and conditions this week. Calls; 1-2 cents lower
- Friday’s CFTC report shows speculative funds net short 56,000 contracts [prev -68k].
- USDA June 1 planting intentions put beans acres at 80.04 mil.Analysts’ estimates pre-report were at 84.355 mil.Bean stocks came in at 1.790 bil bushels versus trade estimates at 1.861 bil, and 1.219 bil year ago.
Outlook: well, beans finished last week .10 to .12 cents higher. If you don’t believe the corn acres number, do you believe the bean number? There was also a sale of beans to China to end last week. There were large meal deliveries last Friday. Calls: 1-2 cents better.
- Friday’s CFTC report shows speculative funds in Chicago net short 20,800 contracts [prev -25k]. In KC net short 18,200 [prev -22k].
- June 1 wheat stocks were put at 1.072 bil bushels versus last year at 1.099 bil.
- Other Spring wheat acres pegged at 12.400 mil versus a March intention at 12.830.
- Larger HRS deliveries stopped by CHS. Zero Chi, and 5 KC.
- IKAR dropped the Russian wheat production estimate to 79.3 mil tons due to hot, dry weather.
- Saudi Arabia bought 730k tons of milling wheat in their tender last week, from various origins.
Outlook: HRW harvest got rolling over most of central Kansas this weekend. General indications are that protein levels are slightly either side of 11%, so not terrible. HRW and SRW will continue to expand harvest activity this week. Calls: 2-3 cents lower.