Morning Highlights


Highlights                

  • Grain markets will be closed this Thursday for 4th of July. No night session, with a hard open on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Also, markets will close early at noon on Wednesday.
  • Industry insiders for Chinese pork production now estimating up to 40-50% of sows have been lost or slaughtered due to African swine fever.
  • USDA said MFP payments would be eligible for prevent plant acres planted to a cover crop, and that a cost share program may be available in 8 states under the EQIP program.States included Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Oklahoma.
  • OPEC will extend oil production cut targets through March 2020.
  • U. S. Dollar index -.073 @ 96.735, Dow futures -40 @ 26,659, Crude Oil futures -.15 @ $58.95.

        

Corn

  • USDA weekly export inspections for corn totaled 10.728 million bushels.Milo loadings totaled 2.215 mil bushels – cargo to China.This was the lowest weekly corn inspection number since November 2015.
  • Weekly crop ratings show corn rated 56% G/E, unchanged from last week.Last year’s rating at this time was 76% G/E.The trade was expecting 1-2 point improvement.Indiana, Illinois, Ohio showed 3-5% pt declines.
  • Corn open interest was up 18,000 contracts yesterday.
  • USDA May grain crush report put corn used for ethanol at 459 mil bushels, below market expectations.Milo for ethanol used was 9.3 mil bushels.

 Outlook: further technical selling rolled corn prices even lower on Monday. Dec19 traded into the ‘gap’ left in May [$4.23-$4.20].  Stochastics on the weekly chart had even turned negative. Most fundamental traders still had their jaws on the table, but heads were still shaking all of yesterday.  You can ‘intend’ all you want, but at the end of the season, replanting, not planting, and poor stands will add up to less corn production.  Seeing a mild bounce overnight.  Calls: 2 better

 

Oilseeds

  • USDA weekly export inspections for beans totaled 26.429 million bushels. And were about the same as the previous week.
  • Weekly crop ratings shows beans 54% G/E, unchanged from last week. Last year at this time ratings were 71% G/E.Emergence put at 83% vs95% last year.Plantings were still behind at 92% versus 99% average.

 

Outlook: beans couldn’t hold their upside traction from Friday, and slide lower with the rest of the grain markets Monday. SX19 put in an outside lower trade, closing below the 100 day moving average [$9.13] and low range for the session.  Calls: up 1-2 cents

 

 Wheat

  • USDA all wheat export inspections last week totaled 22.378 mil bushels.
  • HRW harvest has moved up north of I-70 in Kansas. Common to hear 50-60 bpa yields.
  • USDA’s weekly progress report had winter wheat harvest at 30% complete versus average at 48%.Spring wheat ratings were unchanged at 75% G/E, with 25% of the crop headed versus 52% average.TX and OK report 81% and 72% complete respectively.
  • Egypt announced a tender for wheat, for shipment Aug 2-12. 
  • Algeria is tendering for milling wheat for August shipment, offers due July 4th.

Outlook: without any upside moves in corn, the wheat complex continued to collapse under its own weight [price]. The stronger US dollar didn’t help any either.  Technical selling was also noted in Chicago and KC, as key moving averages were penetrated to the downside.  Calls: 3-4 lower