Morning Highlights


• USDA’s July WASDE will be released at 11 am CDT on Thursday July 11th.
• Due to last week’s holiday, the most recent CFTC data will be released this afternoon at 2:30 cst.
• The US and China will continue negotiations by phone this week.
• Nymex crude oil is slightly lower, the US$ index is 9 ticks higher and Dow futures are slightly lower.

• Chinese state TV is saying that army worms are continuing to spread across the China’s corn growing areas.
• Well the wet forecasts are gone and the new outlook for the next few weeks looks to have way below normal precip and a fair amount of heat.
• The EPA proposed targets for advanced biofuels for 2020 and 2021. There was no change to ethanol targets which remain at 15 billion gallons.
• Spreads are firming: N/U 2 carry, U/Z 3 carry, Z/H 7 carry, Z/N 12 ½ carry.
• Deliveries: 693 contracts.

Outlook: 3 to 5 better as we watch the extended forecasts.

• The US ag attaché to China thinks that African Swine Fever will curb Chinese soybean imports by 1 million tons to 83 million tons.
• Palm oil futures were down almost 1%. This would be the 3rd loss in the past 4 sessions.
• Deliveries: 443 contracts.
• Spreads: N/Q ½ inverse, N/X 18 carry, X/F 11 ½ carry, X/N 34 ¼ carry.

Outlook: 2 better to start, but we have been in a downward trend after posting a key reversal July 1st so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the bean market drift lower.

• Egypt’s supply minister says they have sufficient wheat supplies for 4 ½ months.
• Russia’s SovEcon has slashed its outlook for exports in the new marketing year. The previous forecast was 37.6 million tons which has been cut down to 33 million tons currently.
• Russia’s wheat exports are way behind last year’s pace. Through the first 5 months of the calendar year, Russia exported 9.5 million tons of wheat which is well behind the 17.1 million tons exported last year over the same period.
• Ukrainian wheat production could rise by 17% to 28.8 million tons this year. Favorable weather could lead to record yields according to ag consultants Agritel.
• Spreads: Mpls N/U ½ inverse, U/Z 14 ½ carry, Kansas City N/U 9 ¾ carry, U/Z 20 ¼ carry, WN/U 3 inverse, U/Z 11 ¼ carry.

Outlook: Slightly better to start and the market should react to weather and reports of wheat harvest.