Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Tropical Storm Barry will impact the southern ECB with lingering rains as it moves inland, but is not expected to produce deleterious rain amounts.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00am CT: Dollar up 111 at 96.833, Crude Oil up $.23 at $60.44, Dow up 58 at 27367 and Gold up $3.10 at $1415.30. 

Corn

  • The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for hot/dry conditions for most of the cornbelt.  As of last week only 8% of the crop was pollinating, compared to 22% on average.  We will get updated crop progress at 3pm CT this afternoon.
  •  USDA announced last Friday a sale of 104.1 tmt of corn to Panama for 2019/2020.
  • Open interest in corn was up over 20,000 contracts Friday, as prices surged to the pre-acreage report highs. 
  • A Ukraine consultancy raised their grain production forecast to 72.55mmt, up 1.25mmt from their last estimate, due mostly to a larger corn crop. 

Outlook:  Corn gapped higher in overnight trade on hot weather concerns, but has since pulled back to slightly lower levels. 

Oilseeds

  • The NOPA June crush report will be released at 11:00am CT today; the average estimate is 154.4 mbu of soybeans were crushed.
  • China produced 5.5% less pork in the first half of 2019 than last year, due to African Swine Fever, which was a smaller drop than expected.  China’s soybean imports for June were down 25% from a year ago, commensurate with their reported 25.8% drop in their pig herd for the same period.  In a related story, Cargill has been shuttering feed mills there due to falling feed demand.
  • Soybean prices in China were up 16 ¼ cents last night. 

Outlook: After a strong overnight trade, prices are pulling back into the “biscuit break”.  Last week, the market’s true colors showed up after the 8:30am CT opening. 

Wheat

  • HRW harvest is expected to progress quickly this week with the hot/dry forecast.  Kansas is expected to be around 75% harvested on this afternoon’s report, compared to 61% last week.
  • Russia’s wheat harvest is progressing at a faster pace than last year with early yields reported at 3.79 tons/ha compared to 3.9 tons/ha a year ago, according to their Ag Ministry. 

Outlook: Like other grains, overnight gains have disappeared late this morning.