7/15/2019 7:21:51 AM
- Tropical Storm Barry will impact the southern ECB with lingering rains as it moves inland, but is not expected to produce deleterious rain amounts.
- Outside markets as of 7:00am CT: Dollar up 111 at 96.833, Crude Oil up $.23 at $60.44, Dow up 58 at 27367 and Gold up $3.10 at $1415.30.
- The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for hot/dry conditions for most of the cornbelt. As of last week only 8% of the crop was pollinating, compared to 22% on average. We will get updated crop progress at 3pm CT this afternoon.
- USDA announced last Friday a sale of 104.1 tmt of corn to Panama for 2019/2020.
- Open interest in corn was up over 20,000 contracts Friday, as prices surged to the pre-acreage report highs.
- A Ukraine consultancy raised their grain production forecast to 72.55mmt, up 1.25mmt from their last estimate, due mostly to a larger corn crop.
Outlook: Corn gapped higher in overnight trade on hot weather concerns, but has since pulled back to slightly lower levels.
- The NOPA June crush report will be released at 11:00am CT today; the average estimate is 154.4 mbu of soybeans were crushed.
- China produced 5.5% less pork in the first half of 2019 than last year, due to African Swine Fever, which was a smaller drop than expected. China’s soybean imports for June were down 25% from a year ago, commensurate with their reported 25.8% drop in their pig herd for the same period. In a related story, Cargill has been shuttering feed mills there due to falling feed demand.
- Soybean prices in China were up 16 ¼ cents last night.
Outlook: After a strong overnight trade, prices are pulling back into the “biscuit break”. Last week, the market’s true colors showed up after the 8:30am CT opening.
- HRW harvest is expected to progress quickly this week with the hot/dry forecast. Kansas is expected to be around 75% harvested on this afternoon’s report, compared to 61% last week.
- Russia’s wheat harvest is progressing at a faster pace than last year with early yields reported at 3.79 tons/ha compared to 3.9 tons/ha a year ago, according to their Ag Ministry.
Outlook: Like other grains, overnight gains have disappeared late this morning.