Morning Highlights


Highlights 

  • NOAA’s 90 day outlook projects normal to above normal temperatures and precipitation for the whole country during that period.
  • August Gold made new contract highs overnight at $1454.40, the highest nearby price since May 2013.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00am CT: Dollar up 318 at 96.997, Crude Oil up $.73 at $56.03, Dow up 80 at 27281 and Gold up $10.60 at $1438.70. 

Corn

  • BAGE estimated Argentina’s corn harvest 61% complete, up 8 on the week and 8 below last year’s pace.  Their production estimate was unchanged at 48mmt, while USDA is currently at 50mmt.
  • Open interest declined 5k contracts in yesterday’s break below support, indicating the exiting of positions.
  • The Cattle On Feed and Cattle Inventory reports will be released at 2:00pm CT today.The average estimates are looking for 1.9% more cattle on feed, but the total cattle inventory to be unchanged from last year. 

Outlook:  Weather appeared to be the primary driver in yesterday’s sell-off, now the question becomes where do break-buyers step in and what is the next supportive news to come out for this market? 

Oilseeds

  • Malaysian Palm Oil continued its decline, settling 9 lower at 1974 MYR/tonne.
  • Soybeans are poised to form a reversal lower on the weekly charts today, but could potentially be forming a wedge pattern if there is no follow-through next week. 

Outlook: Soybeans broke lower yesterday, but have managed to stay above the July 9th lows, which is current support.  Overnight trade is gaining momentum higher, but on very low volume. 

Wheat

  • The Wheat Quality Council’s Hard Spring Wheat and Durum Tour will begin with a meeting Monday night and kick off the tour Tuesday morning.You can follow CHS Hedging’s tour participant on Twitter at our homepage CHS Hedging or Twitter .
  • The VSR (Variable Storage Rate) evaluation period for KC and Chicago wheat begins Monday and goes through August 23rd, using the September/December 2019 spread.
  • IKAR, a Russian ag consultancy, lowered its estimate of Russian grain production by 2mmt to 121.4mmt.
  • BAGE estimated that Argentina is 92.1% complete on their wheat planting.  6.6 mha is expected to be planted this year, up .4 mha from last year. 

Outlook: Wheat prices stayed above their early July lows in KC and MN yesterday, but Chicago broke below that support level.