Morning Highlights


Highlights                                 

  • U.S. trade negotiators are heading to China today for their first trade talks since May. President Trump has said he expects China to delay any deal until the U.S. elections.
  • British PM Boris Johnson says his government is “turbocharging” efforts to prepare for a “no-deal” exit from the EU on Oct 31. It seems increasingly unlikely that the EU will renegotiate a Brexit deal, so British Parliament may have to step in to block the “no deal” exit. The British pound hit a two year low this morning.
  • As of 7:00 am CT, crude oil is up 12 cents to $56.32/barrel, gold is up 0.60 at $1,419.90, DOW up 31 to 27,180, dollar index up 207, and Euro is down 130 pts.

Corn

  • Forecasts are slightly drier through Aug 12, with 0.5” to 2” of precip for most of the Corn Belt in that time frame. Sentiment still leans favorable, with moderate temps.
  • The CZ19/CZ20 spread traded from 8 cents to 11 ¾ overnight.
  • Commitments of Traders for the week ending 7/23/19 showed funds were net sellers of 34,044 corn contracts, now net long 153,216 contracts.

Outlook:  Sep futures down 2 ½ to up 5 overnight.. markets are being driven by weather until we get fresh numbers from the USDA.


Oilseeds

  • U.S. soybean exports to China were down 62.6% year-over-year in the first half of 2019, at 5.902 MMT.
  • Canadian canola exports to China fell 53% YoY in June to 194,140 tons.
  • China’s Dalian soybeans were up 3 ¼ overnight, soymeal down 0.40, and soyoil up 30. Malaysian palm oil was down 6 ringgits overnight.
  • COT data showed funds were net buyers of 446 soybean contracts, now net short 38,489 contracts. Funds are net short 25,679 meal, 39,175 soyoil, and are a record short 65,749 canola contracts.

Outlook

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August beans down 1 ½ to up 6 overnight..  traders are hoping for a meaningful soybean purchase from China. For now, beans are stuck in a very tight range.

                 

Wheat

  • SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports at 31.4 MMT vs USDA at 34.5 MMT and down 6.2 MMT from their previous estimate. IKAR raised their production estimate by 300k to 76.4 MMT.
  • Ukraine’s wheat harvest is 76% complete at 19.7 MMT, on pace for 26 MMT vs USDA at 29 MMT.
  • Soufflet estimates French soft wheat production at 38-39 MMT vs Strategie Grains at 38.2 MMT and French government at 37 MMT. The crop is 63% harvested and protein is averaging 11.5%.
  • Algeria is tendering for milling wheat for Sep 1-15 and Sep 16-30 shipments.
  • COT data showed funds were net sellers of 6,972 Chicago wheat contracts, now net long 11,779 contracts. They are net short 18,337 KC wheat and short a record 14,410 Minneapolis wheat contracts.

Outlook:  July KC wheat down 3 ½ to up 7 ¼ overnight..  world wheat production estimates are dropping, so HRW should have export demand when it moves away from feed.