Morning Highlights


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Highlights

  • The Chinese President says they plan to stand firm against the US and are willing to wait for tariffs to damage the US economy enough and for the US stock market to decline enough that President Trump will give in to China on trade war issues.
  • The Ag markets traded in narrow ranges ahead of next week’s USDA crop production report.The main focus continues to be on whether the USDA will show a sizable reduction in planted acres.
  • The energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil down 40 cents at $53.26/barrel.
  • DJIA is up 311 at 26029, S&P up 1 at 2877 and the NASSDAQ up 12 at 7833.
  • The US$ is a tad weaker at 97.61, the gold market is up 20 bucks at $1,496/ounce and the CD$ is off a freckle at 0.75245. 

Corn

  • The corn market traded mixed overnight in light volume.Most months had a 3-cent trading range.
  • The average trade guess for 2019/20 US corn: planted acres at 87.998 million (83.494-89.800), harvested acres at 80.050 million (76.114-81.900), yield at 164.9 bushels per acre (161.0-167.2) and total production at 13.193 billion bushels (12.723-13.550).
  • 2018/19 carryout is estimated at 2.392 bb (2.220-2.490) and 2019/20 carryout is estimated at 1.620 bb (1.281-1.900).
  • Spreads: U/Z 8 ½ carry, Z/H 8 ¾ carry, seems to be sneaking in on possible lack of movement and tightening supplies. 

Outlook: Choppy trade expected on acreage uncertainty and weather forecasts 

Oilseeds

  • The soybean market traded steady to a bit higher in modest volume. Most months saw a 5-cent trading range overnight.
  • Palm oil futures were unchanged at 2,102 ringgit and the Chinese beans were up 4 ¾ cents overnight.
  • The average traded guess for 2019/20 US soybeans: planted at 81.006 million (78.000-83.500), harvested at 79.890 million (77.300-82.800), yield at 47.6 bushels per acre (46.0-49.0) and total production at 3.800 billion bushels, (3.633-3.974).
  • 2018/19 carryout is estimated at 1.065 bb (0.988-1.124) and 2019/20 carryout is estimated at 0.821 mb (0.607-0.950).
  • Spreads: X/F 13 ¼ carry, F/K 22 ¾ carry, X/N 47 ¾ carry. 

Outlook:  Choppy trade expected to continue on acreage uncertainty and trade war outlook 

Wheat

  • The wheat market traded mixed, along with the trading action in the corn and beans.Prices drew additional pressure from ample supplies, slow demand and harvest activity.
  • Japan tenders for 114,783 tonnes of optional origin wheat for October shipment. The menu consist of 11k US white, 16k US HRW, 28k US spring wheat, 35k Canadian spring wheat and 25k Australian white wheat.
  • 2019/20 carryout is estimated at 0.999 mb (0.918-1.072). The 2018/19 carryout was at 1.072 bb as reported in the USDA July S&D report.
  • Spreads: Mpls U/Z at 11 carry, Z/H 12 ¾ carry, Kansas City U/Z 17 carry, U/U 63 ¾ carry. 

Outlook:  steady to easier on ample supplies and harvest pressure