8/16/2019 7:16:35 AM
- Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour will begin next week and undoubtedly, those on the tour will find a large amount of variability and crops that are well behind average development. CHS Hedging will have a person on each leg of the tour, west and east.
- John Deere reported earnings per share at $2.71 vs. analyst expectations of $2.85. They lowered their guidance for the second consecutive quarter citing postponement of equipment purchases by farmers struggling with export market access and overall crop conditions.
- China’s agriculture ministry said the pig herd has gone down by 32.2% for July vs. last year. This is compared to a 25% decline vs. last year for their June estimate.
- As of 7:05 AM CT, September crude oil was up $0.31 at $54.78. The dollar index was up 0.125 at 98.130, and Dow futures were up 223 points.
- Corn is higher overnight again, recovering from the sell-off earlier in the week.
- DTN Progressive Farmer has done a Digital Yield Tour across the Corn Belt using satellite imagery, rainfall data, temperature maps and other public data. They examined the eastern Corn Belt yesterday and estimated the Indiana and Illinois yields to be 28 bushels per acre less than the USDA estimate and Ohio was 24 bushels per acre lower than the USDA. A final tour yield is to be released later today.
- Rain is expected to be widespread across the Corn Belt over the next 5 days, but the extended forecasts call for the dry weather to return.
- Spreads: U/Z 10 ¼ cent carry; Z/H 12 ¼ cent carry; Z/N 26 ½ cent carry.
Outlook: Slightly better to finish the week off after a hard sell-off earlier in the week.
- Soybeans were higher on the overnight session after a seven cent drop in yesterday’s market.
- The China and US trade war has seen rhetoric from both countries this week that has been both positive and negative about the other, leaving folks to wonder exactly where the negotiations sit.
- NOPA crush was very large at 168.1 million bushels vs. expectations of 155.8 million bushels causing a lower soymeal market and, consequently, lower soybean market.
- Soybeans in China were 9 ¼ cents weaker, soymeal was down 1.00 cent, and soyoil was up 32. Malaysian palm oil futures were unchanged at 2,200 ringgits.
- DTN Progressive Farmer Digital Yield Tour shows eastern Corn Belt yields significantly below USDA’s estimates. They will release a final tour yield later today.
- Spreads: U/X 12 ¾ cent carry; X/F 13 ¾ cent carry; X/N 48 ¼ cent carry.
Outlook: Higher, bouncing back from yesterday’s drop.
- Wheat markets are slightly higher overnight across the board as KC and Minneapolis are just off their life of contract lows.
- US ag attaché in Canada forecasts the Canadian wheat crop to be at 32.650 MMT vs. last year’s 31.769 MMT. The attaché also expects exports to be higher with China increasing their purchases.
- Egypt has bought 175,000 MT of Russian wheat and 120,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat in their latest tender.
- Spreads: Chicago U/Z 5 ¾ cent carry; Kansas City U/Z 14 ½ cent carry; Minneapolis U/Z 11 ¾ cent carry.
Outlook: Mixed trading in a sideways pattern after a sharp drop earlier in the week.