Morning Highlights


 

Highlights

  • China and the US began to impose additional tariffs on some US goods. More tariffs are scheduled for Dec 15.
  • As of 6:30 AM October NYMEX crude oil was $1.07 lower, the US dollar index was 99.281 up 0.241. DOW and S&P futures are lower.
  • The September WASDE is next week on Sept 12th at 11:00 AM Central. 

Corn

  • Corn has seen light, two-sided trade so far overnight and about 4-5 cents off support near contract lows.
  • Weekend weather was mainly nonthreatening and mostly beneficial as the crop remains behind in development and needs time. NASS has begun their objective yield survey for the Sept 12 report. Highly variable results are expected given that this year’s crop was planted over such a long spring timeframe.
  • The 8 to 14 day forecast for Sep 10-16, shows above normal temps to cover most of the US.
  • Dr. Mike Cordonnier of the Soybean and Corn Advisor, Inc., left his corn yield estimated unchanged at 162bpa.
  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders, as of 8/27, showed large spec funds an estimated net short of 115k.
  • Deliveries of 373 contracts: Spreads: Z/H 13 cent carry; Z/N 27 ½ cent carry. 

Outlook:  Lower as the forecast appears favorable. 

Oilseeds

  • Soybeans have traded lower the entire overnight session as weekend weather is considered mostly favorable. As previously announced, both the US and China implemented new import tariffs over the weekend, as the trade war appears far from resolution.
  • Dr Cordonnier leaves his soybean yield estimate steady at 46bpa with a neutral bias.
  • Deliveries of 1,065 contracts of soybeans add to the weaker tone. Deliveries of 571 soymeal and 219 soyoil contracts.
  • Brazil August soybean exports were well behind 2018 exports.
  • Friday’s COT, as of 8/27, showed large spec funds an estimated net short of 85k.
  • Spreads: X/F 13 ¾ cent carry; X/N 47 ½ cent carry. 

Outlook: 3-5 lower on new tariffs and decent US weather 

Wheat

  • New contract lows on MWZ after a decent harvest weekend was interrupted by rain and storms that moved across North Dakota and N Minnesota yesterday.
  • Deliveries: 1005 KS HRW, 332 Chicago and 606 MGEx.
  • Paris Milling Wheat futures are steady/firm as they remain at/near contact lows.
  • Friday’s COT shows large spec funds showed the large spec funds net short 30-35k.
  • Spreads: Chicago Z/H 8 ¾ cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 16 ¼ cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 13 ¼ cent carry. 

Outlook: Weaker, led by Chicago