9/4/2019 7:04:58 AM
- Hong Kong’s leader has withdrawn a bill that has sparked months of protest.
- Hurricane Dorian heads toward the SE coast of the US.
- As of 6:30 AM October NYMEX crude oil was $0.75 higher, the US dollar index was down 0.355. DOW and S&P futures are higher
- The September WASDE is next week on Sept 12th at 11:00 AM Central.
- On the crop progress report, the USDA says 81% of the crop is in the dough stage, behind the five-year average of 93%. The crop is 41% dented, behind the five-year average of 63% and 6% is mature. 58% is rated G/E with 13% rated VP/P.
- Deliveries of 946 contracts, so far, keeps CZ Corn just above its contract low.
- In yesterday afternoon’s Grain Crushing report, the USDA reported that 508 million bushels of corn were used for alcohol and other uses in July, down 5% from June 2018 but up 1% from June 2019. For alcohol was 91.3%.
- Overall weather remains nonthreatening and mostly beneficial as the crop remains behind in development. The next week or two is expected to bring warmer daytime highs as any frost threat appears mute with the current forecast. The 8 to 14 day forecast for Sep 10-16, shows above normal temps to cover most of the US.
- NASS has begun their objective yield survey for the Sept 12 report.
- Spreads: Z/H 13 cent carry; Z/N 28 cent carry.
- Soybeans have seen two-sided trade so far overnight as the USDA’s crop progress report showing that 86% of the crop is setting pods makes a few traders nervous. The five-year average for setting pods is 96%. Soybeans blooming is estimated at 96%, gaining only 2% from last week.
- Deliveries were reported at 630 soybean contracts, 591 contracts of soymeal and 4 soyoil contracts.
- FOB US export offers remain competitive and below both Argentina and Brazil offers. The tariffs imposed by China on US bean imports make US uncompetitive against tariff free soybeans from South America. US soybean are competitive for other world demand.
- US weather remains favorable as temperatures are expected to warm in the next few weeks, giving the soybean crop a good chance to make it to maturity without any major yield reducing event.
- Spreads: X/F 13 ¾ cent carry; X/N 46 ½ cent carry.
Outlook: 3-5 better with decent US weather
- Fresh off new contract lows again yesterday, both KC HRW and MGEx futures see a small rebound in overnight trading. Paris Milling wheat futures also saw new contract lows yesterday.
- Deliveries: 175 SRW, 134 HRW and no MGEx.
- US FOB export offers remain under both French and Russia offers.
- The USDA estimates US spring wheat harvest at 55% complete, well behind the average pace of 78% harvested. Montana is estimated at 46% harvested and North Dakota at 52% complete. Recent rain events have disrupted harvest and raised concern about deteriorating quality.
- Seeding of the next US winter wheat crop will begin soon.
- Spreads: Chicago Z/H 5 ¼ cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 15 ½ cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 13 ½ cent carry.
Outlook: 3 to 5 better