Morning Highlights


  • Hurricane Dorian strengthens again and heads toward South Carolina.
  • The United States and China have agreed to hold trade talks in October.
  • As of 6:30 AM October NYMEX crude oil was $0.15 lower, the US dollar index was down 0.190, DOW and S&P futures are higher
  • The September WASDE is next week on Sept 12th at 11:00 AM Central. 


  • Fresh off new contact lows yesterday on many contracts, futures are seeing a modest bounce overnight in rather featureless trade.
  • Weather forecasts appear quite favorable through mid-month, giving the crop time to develop and mature.
  • Analyst groups begin to offer their private survey results on yield and production ahead of next week’s USDA report. Yesterday saw estimates released of 167.71 and 168.4bpa, both are under the current USDA estimate of 169.5bpa.
  • Egg-sets were 105% of last year and chick placements run at 102% of last year, indicating strong feed use potential. Overall export demand remains subdued as FOB US export offers are still below FOB South America values.
  • Deliveries of 694 contracts.
  • NASS has begun their objective yield survey for the Sept 12 report.
  • Spreads: Z/H 13 ¼ cent carry; Z/N 28 ¾ cent carry. 

Outlook:  better to start but has been having a hard time gaining upside momentum 


  • Soybeans are slightly higher coming into the daylight hours after seeing two-sided trade overnight.
  • Deliveries were reported at 591 soybean contracts and 520 soymeal contracts.
  • AgRural is estimating Brazil acres to increase 1.1%, the slowest rate of increase in a few years.
  • US and China have agreed to resume trade talks in October.
  • FOB US export offers are competitive for global demand without a tariff.
  • US weather remains generally non-threatening and favorable for development. Cool daytime highs are a concern across the northern region though any threat of frost is currently absent from the forecasts.
  • Spreads: X/F 13 ¾ cent carry; X/N 46 ½ cent carry. 

Outlook: a couple better as the US crop needs time without a frost event 


  • Seeing follow-through strength in overnight trading, something that has been hard to come by in recent weeks after consistently seeing new contract lows on many contracts.
  • Deliveries: 293 SRW, 12 HRW and no MGEx.
  • US FOB export offers remain above French soft wheat offers and Russian HRW offers.
  • Paris Milling whet futures also seeing slightly higher prices.
  • Weather across the northern plains remains as a disrupter to the remaining HRS harvest. Quality is becoming a concern.
  • Many regions of the US will begin to seed the next US winter wheat crop within the month of September.
  • Spreads: Chicago Z/H 5 ¾ cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 15 ¼ cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 13 ½ cent carry. 

Outlook: better as we finally get some follow-through buying