9/6/2019 7:03:45 AM
- Hurricane Dorian blows past North Carolina and could reach Canada this weekend.
- The United States and China have agreed to hold trade talks in October.
- As of 6:30 AM October NYMEX crude oil was $1.10 lower, the US dollar index was up 0.102, DOW and S&P futures are higher.
- The September WASDE is next week on Sept 12th at 11:00 AM Central.
- Prices consolidate just above contract lows from a few days ago as the market waits for fresh news from the USDA next week. Private yield estimates are running slightly below the August USDA yield of 169.5bpa, as a below average crop has been factored in for months.
- US weather forecasts remains favorable, absent any growing season ending cold air/freeze event.
- Discussion and talk continue about the administration’s work on a “giant” package for biofuels. An increase in the overall mandate is possible.
- FOB US export offers continue to be above South America offers. The US farmer is practically a non-existent seller after seeing contract lows, contract highs and then new contract lows within the last 120 days.
- Deliveries of 686 contracts.
- Spreads are fractionally firm: Z/H 12 ¾ cent carry; Z/N 28 ½ cent carry.
- Export sales estimate: 0-100tmt old crop; 500-800tmt new crop.
Outlook: better to start and is having difficulty gaining upside momentum
- Soybeans are seeing a small rebound after yesterday’s stiff losses. US weather remains favorable with moderate temps and rain chances in the WCB. Northern growing regions will experience below normal daytime highs.
- Deliveries were reported at 580 soybean contracts, 340 soymeal contracts and 43 contracts of soyoil.
- US and China have agreed to resume face to face trade talks in October.
- FOB US export offers remain competitive for global demand without a tariff and Brazil appears to have supplies to offer up through US harvest.
- Paraguay’s Ag Minister says soy production could be up 22% from last year.
- Export sales estimate: (150)-100tmt old crop; 200-600tmt new crop
- Spreads: X/F 13 ¾ cent carry; X/N 47 ½ cent carry.
Outlook: a couple better as the US crop needs time
- Not seeing any follow-through strength after the past two sessions of gains. Wheat futures need to see a few more days of upside momentum to try to negate the poor technical outlook.
- Deliveries: 36 SRW, 28 HRW and 34 MGEx.
- Stats Can is out this morning with their July 31 stocks report, 5.2mmt of wheat expected, slightly below last year’s 5.91mmt.
- Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has supposedly reported that 81% of their crop has adequate or optimal soil moisture, while others have a varying opinion about dryness in the northern region. Parts of Australia remain quite dry.
- US FOB export offers remain at a premium to French soft wheat offers and Black Sea HRW offers.
- Weather across the northern plains will remain a disrupter to the HRS harvest. Sprout damage is a concern in some areas.
- Export sales estimate: 400-800tmt.
- Spreads: Chicago Z/H 6 ¼ cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 14 cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 13 ¾ cent carry.
Outlook: Sideways/lower as follow-through buying is absent so far today