Morning Highlights


Highlights 

  • The Chinese government has reportedly issued a year long tariff exemption on 16 U.S. products ahead of their Washington trade meeting in early October.  The exemption would start September 17th but does not include their largest ag imports – soybeans and meat.
  • The 11-15 day GFS outlook is starting to show a cooler pattern emerging around September 20th.  Traders will be watching for confirmation of any pattern change, because of the late maturity of this years’ crops.
  • USDA’s September S&D report will be released tomorrow, at 11:00am CT.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00am CT: Dollar up 310 at 98.634, Crude Oil up $.51 at $57.91, Dow up 49 at 26943 and Gold up $.10 at $1499.30. 

Corn

  • CONAB raised their estimate of Brazil’s corn crop by .7mmt to 100mmt, with what would be a record corn yield of 91.1 bu/acre.
  • USDA announced yesterday a sale of 278.2tmt corn to Mexico for 2019/2020.
  • South Korea’s MFG bought 136tmt corn optional origin for February delivery.
  • There were 261 corn deliveries announced Friday evening. 

Outlook:  Pullback overnight as China story details emerge; light volume expected ahead of tomorrow’s report.

 

Oilseeds

  • China has agreed to open the import door for soymeal from Argentina for the first time, in an agreement that will be signed today.  According to USDA’s WASDE report, China imports only a nominal amount of soymeal/year.
  • Brazil’s start to the soybean planting season is slower than last year due to drier conditions in several states there.
  • USDA announced yesterday sales of 138tmt soybeans (2019/2020) and 195.75tmt soymeal (155tmt for 2019/2020 and 40.75tmt for 2020/2021) to Mexico.
  • There were 226 soybean, 96 soymeal and 60 soyoil deliveries. 

Outlook: Talk yesterday of China offering to relax some tariffs gave a boost to commodities, especially soybeans, but news reports today say soybeans and meat are not included in the break, and markets are giving back some of those gains. 

Wheat

  • Jordan bought 60tmt of hard milling wheat in their tender for 2nd half November shipment, optional origin.
  • Britain had their largest weekly sales of wheat since 2000 as sellers become more aggressive ahead of a Brexit deadline, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.
  • Stats Canada will release their field crop production report tomorrow morning.
  • There were 3 deliveries in KC wheat, 23 in Chicago and 0 in MPLS. 

Outlook: Continued pressure on world wheat prices gives some headwinds to our price rally.