9/12/2019 7:37:46 AM
- President Trump announced he will delay the 5% tariff increase (to 30%) on some of China’s goods by two weeks, now to be implemented October 15th, in a sign of good will ahead of trade talks.
- USDA’s September S&D report will be released this morning, at 11:00am CT. Here is a link to CHS Hedging’s Convenience Table of estimates.
- The latest GFS run of the 11-15 day period continues to show much below normal temperatures for most of the cornbelt.
- September grain futures cease trading at noon Friday.
- China is on holiday Friday for their Mid-Autumn Festival.
- Outside markets as of 7:00am CT: Dollar up 130 at 98.756, Crude Oil down $.57 at $55.18, Dow up 83 at 27227 and Gold up $17.10 at $1520.30.
- Corn exports were 498.1tmt vs. estimates of 450-950tmt in today’s weekly export sales report.
- The average guess for corn yield in today’s report is 167.2 bu/acre. USDA was 169.5 bu/acre in the August report.
- Weekly ethanol production was up 10k bbl/day in yesterday’s report to 1023k bbl/day, while ethanol stocks dropped 1.302 million barrels to 22.499 mil bbls.
- There were 132 corn deliveries announced yesterday.
Outlook: USDA report at 11:00am will set the tone, until then markets expected to wander.
- Soybean exports were 1.172mmt vs. estimates of 550tmt to 1.15mmt, soymeal were 119.2tmt vs. estimates of 125-325tmt, soyoil were 10.8tmt vs. estimates of 5-35tmt.
- China’s ag ministry lowered their soybean import estimate for the coming year by 900tmt to 84mmt. USDA ‘s August estimate was 85mmt.
- The average guess for the soybean yield in today’s report is 47.2 bu/acre. USDA was 48.5 bu/acre in the August report.
- There were 508 soybean, 54 soymeal and 45 soyoil deliveries.
Outlook: Soybeans are higher following tariff delay announcement, but USDA’s report will determine the remainder of the day.
- Wheat export sales were 602.8tmt vs. estimates of 300-600tmt.
- Stats Canada estimated their all-wheat production at 32.491mmt.
- Taiwan’s FMA has tendered for 110.3tmt U.S. milling wheat.
- A damaged lock on the Columbia River has stranded 100tmt of wheat headed for export, while repairs are made.
- There were 3 deliveries in KC wheat, 1 in Chicago and 0 in MPLS.
Outlook: Traders don’t expect a lot of changes in today’s report but think any changes will be saved for the end of month Small Grains Summary. That may keep wheat a follower today.