9/25/2019 7:09:30 AM
- Rains in the forecasts going into the weekend for much of the Midwest. Then some potential for cooler temps in the 10 day forecast into next week.
- Sept 30th USDA will put out the Sept 1 quarterly stocks report and small grains report.
- Taiwan signed non-binding letters of intent for US [Illinois] corn and bean purchases over the next two years.
- Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced formal impeachment ‘inquiry’ against the President yesterday.
- Three more cases of ASF reported in South Korea.
- U. S. Dollar index +.342 @ 98.675, Dow futures -45 @ 26,774, Crude Oil futures -1.10 @ $56.18.
- Corn got a little demand story from a 200k tons sale to Mexico announced yesterday. The sale was likely consummated late last week.
- CZ/H spread now in to -11.CZ19 did put in an outside higher trade session.
- US export corn values are said to be $5-$10 per ton higher than competition from Brazil, Argentina, or Ukraine origins.
Outlook: Dec corn continues to hold the recent lows, but can’t seem to generate anything but sideways trade this week. Spreads appeared to trade firmer. Calls: steady/mixed
- China buying interest for US beans remained on the table yesterday, as several more cargoes were said to have traded.
- China will continue to exclude some US ag products [beans and pork] from additional tariffs.
- The Chinese government has approved bean meal exports from 7 Argentine plants.
Outlook: beans retained a slightly friendly upside momentum, in what was mostly a very quiet market. Traders are waiting for daily sales announcements from USDA to verify the China export business. Calls: 3-4 lower
- This is the 4th day of the CME VSR observation period.KWZ/H spread is currently running 47% of full carry.The KC HRW delivery storage rate is currently .08/month.WZ/H is running 33%, but cannot contract any further than the minimum .05/month rate. The period runs through Nov 22nd.
- MWZ traded up through its 100 day moving average [$5.41] on more technical buying. European wheat prices were lower, and held back Chicago and KC.
- Weekly deliverable stocks report shows KC 107.697 mil bu +1.9 mil from prior week [LY 126.012 mil]; CBOT 47.755 mil bu -463k from prior week [LY 81.5 mil]; MGEX 22.951 mil bu +1.484 from prior week [LY 21.2 mil].
- For the record, deliverable grade specs for MGE: USDA #2 or better Dark Northern or Northern Spring Wheat.Max 4% damage and min TW 57.0 lbs. Protein of 13.5% or higher, with down to 13.0% at discount of .03 cents.
- After the close, Egypt [GASC] issued a tender for milling wheat for shipment Oct 26-Nov 5.
- Russia’ Ag Ministry increased the Russian wheat crop projection from 75 to 78 mil tons.
Outlook: the HRS upside move continued yesterday, likely fueled by nervous shorts in the MWZ. Rains were again seen in parts of the northern plains and into Canada. Meanwhile, WZ19 had a tough technical day, as it failed to get back above the 50 day moving average, and the high was at the 10 day average [4.84]. Dryness still a concern for Argentine wheat, and Australia. Calls: Minny +3, Chi & KC -3