Morning Highlights


Highlights                

  • Talk of frost in forecasts next week for northern states, and possible snow along the Canadian boarder. Wet forecasts for the Pacific Northwest, and much of the corn belt states.
  • Sept 30th USDA will put out the Sept 1 quarterly stocks report and small grains report. It will also be month end and quarter end, so likely a lot of squaring up of positions.
  • The US and Japan signed a long-term trade agreement yesterday. The deal eliminates or reduces tariffs on certain Ag and food products.
  • China announced a third auction of frozen pork from government reserves set for Sept 29th.
  • U. S. Dollar index +.028 @ 99.036, Dow futures +69 @ 27,027, Crude Oil futures -.07 @ $56.43.

        

Corn

  • Weekly ethanol production dropped 60k from the previous week to 943,000 bpd.Ethanol stocks were lower, down 738,000 to 22.5 mil barrels.This is the largest weekly decline in quite some time.
  • USDA export sales for last week total 494,000 tons.Milo sales were 66,000 tons.
  • Trade estimates for Monday’s Sept 1 quarterly stocks: avg 2.428 bil bu [hi 2.50 / low 2.298 bil, LY 2.140 bil bu.

 Outlook: the poor ethanol numbers added to corn’s demand woes, but the market didn’t seem to notice much, or care. Trade remains in a narrow range this week.  Calls: steady/sideways

 

Oilseeds

  • USDA export sales for last week were 1,038,000 mil tons. Meals sales 164,000 tons, 34,000 bean oil.
  • Trade estimates for Monday’s Sept 1 quarterly stocks: avg 982 mil bu [hi 1.035 / low 940 mil, LY 438 mil bu].

 

Outlook: beans rolled over and spent the day in negative territory despite recent China buying interest – a daily export sales announcement of 581k tons. Calls: 3-4 cents higher

 

 Wheat

  • Even though it has been dry recently in Argentina, the Buenos Aires Exchange is estimating wheat production at 21 mil tons. Last year’s production was 19.5 mil tons.
  • USDA export sales for last week were 283,000 tons. By class, HRW 104k, SRW 48k, SWW 110,000, HRS 20k.
  • Egypt bought a total of 300k tons of wheat in their tender, prices from $212.87 - $214.95 C&F. 60k French and 240k Russian.
  • Taiwan will retender next week for US spring wheat. They passed on this week’s tender due to high prices.They may also lower the specs slightly to engage more offers.

Outlook: another day, another 8-10 cents higher move for Minneapolis. And Chicago wheat had another day of struggle. Quality issues with HRS may lend support for higher protein HRW, as demand could increase for blending into domestic flour grind. The soft wheat grind is already using small blending of lower protein HRW, and KC is by far the cheapest wheat on the board. There are colder temps and possible snows in the forecasts for part of Canada and Montana this week to compound late harvest activity. Futures are trading higher overnight, as Chicago rebounds from lower trade the past couple sessions.  Calls 4-7 cents better