10/16/2019 7:31:53 AM
- China has said they want tariffs reduced before they agree to buy $40-$50 billion of US agricultural products.
- Temperatures are to warm up for the end of the week, but rain is expected for the weekend across the central and eastern Corn Belt as well as the far northwestern Corn Belt.
- Outside markets as of 7:15 AM Central: November crude oil is up $0.32 at $53.13; Dow futures down 39 points; U.S. Dollar is up 0.082 at 98.085.
- China warned it would take effective measures against the US after the House of Representatives passed a bill supporting the Hong Kong protestors. The bill would need to get approved by the Senate and President Trump. China says the affairs of Hong Kong are China’s and not to be impacted by outside forces.
- Corn was lower overnight with the December contract gapping lower as there is a half cent gap between yesterday’s low and today’s high.
- Harvest progress was at 22% complete vs. 36% average and 15% last week. Expectations were for 22% to be completed. Corn maturity was at 73% vs. 92% average with the entire Corn Belt well behind the average pace.
- The Trump administration came out with a proposal for a new formula for biofuel demand. It was not received well by the corn industry, saying it isn’t enough demand, and the oil industry, with them not wanting the biofuel usage to increase.
- Spreads wider this morning with December continuing to weaken: Z/H 11 ½ cent carry; Z/K 18 ¼ cent carry; Z/N 23 ¼ cent carry.
Outlook: Lower, lack of fresh news giving a week market tone.
- Soybeans were mixed overnight following yesterday’s weak finish to the day after the NOPA crush came in 9.634 million bushels lower than expectations. Uncertainty with the US and China trade deal is causing indecisiveness.
- Harvest progress was at 26% complete vs. the 5-year average of 49%. Expectations were for harvest to be 25% complete.
- Chinese soybeans were down 4 ¼ cents at 3,419 yuan per ton. Soymeal was up 0.10 at 2,976 and soyoil was up 36 at 5,974. Malaysian Palm oil was up 46 ringgits at 2,219.
- Spreads mixed with nearby Nov staying resilient: X/F 14 cent carry; X/H 25 cent carry; X/N 42 ¾ cent carry.
Outlook: Mixed on worries of some crop damage but China trade deal uncertainty applying some pressure.
- Wheat was nominally lower across the board this morning but holding support at elevated levels.
- Crop progress report showed spring wheat harvest at 94% complete vs. the 5-year average of 100% complete. North Dakota has 7% to go, Montana has 12% to go and Minnesota has 2% left, most of the wheat left out is done for and the market has known that for awhile now.
- Winter wheat planting is 65% complete vs. the 5-year average of 65%. Planting progress is right on pace across the main producing states although Montana and Michigan are behind their average pace. Emergence is at 41% vs. 40% average.
- Egypt is tendering for wheat today for November 21-30 shipment with the lowest offer coming from the French.
- Japan put in a tender for 115,835 tonnes of food wheat from the US, Canada and Australia.
- Spreads slightly tighter this morning: Chicago Z/H 6 cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 12 ½ cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 14 cent carry.
Outlook: Mixed, lack of news currently, more of a follower of corn and soybeans.