11/8/2019 7:16:10 AM
- CHS Hedging has scheduled an Introduction to Technical Analysis class on January 10th, 2020. In addition, CHS Hedging will offer an Energy Class on January 23rd, 2020. To register for these classes please go to http://chshedging.com and click on the appropriate link to the class or classes you may be interested in attending.
- The November WASDE report will be released today, November 8th, at 11 AM CT.
- Agriculture Secretary Sonny Purdue stated that the USDA is preparing the second tranche of aid to farmers. Purdue expressed that the aid will hopefully be ready by the end of this month or early December.
- A White House spokeswoman, Stephanie Grisham, stated in an interview yesterday that the U.S is “very, very optimistic” about reaching a trade agreement with China soon.
- As of 7:10 AM: Crude oil down 0.76 at 56.39, Dow futures up 9 points at 27,676, and the U.S$ index up 143 ticks at 98.286.
- The corn market is trading slightly lower this morning as traders await the report out at 11:00 AM CT.
- The average trade guess for corn yield is set at 167.5 bpa, down from USDA’s previous projection of 168.4 bpa. Trade guesses for the last three WASDE reports have been too low compared to the USDA’s projections and the market seems to be expecting another negative report.
- Export sales for the week were poor again coming in at 487,900 MT and were estimated at 300,000-650,000 MT. Sales remain well below the needed pace to reach the USDA’s export forecast.
- Weather remains benign with some light snowfall expected for the north central Plains and northern Midwest.
- FranceAgriMer reported that 79% of the 2019 grain maize is expected to have been harvested by November 4th, compared to 65% the week prior.
- Spreads: Z/H 8 ¼ cent carry; H/K 7 cent carry; K/N 6 ½ cent carry; Z/N 22 cent carry.
Outlook: The market will remain steady this morning as traders wait for the WASDE report
- The soybean market is trading a fraction lower this morning as the market continues to wait for the report out this morning.
- Estimates for soybean yield on this mornings USDA report average at 46.6 bpa, compared to last months 46.9 bpa. Production estimates are averaging at 3.510 billion bushels, compared to 3.550 billion bushels last month.
- The trade is estimating a drop in harvested acres due to the resurveying of Minnesota and North Dakota. Trade estimates are set at 75.422 million acres, compared to the USDA’s projection from October of 75.626 million acres.
- The General Administration of Customs of China showed that China imported 70.69 million tonnes from January-October this year vs 76.93 last year. Soybean imports for October came in at 6.18 million tonnes vs 8.20 million tonnes in September.
- Export sales for soybeans were strong yesterday at 1,807,400 MT, much higher than estimates ranging from 600,000 to 1,200,000 MT.
- Spreads: F/H 12 ¼ carry, F/N 34 ¼ carry, H/K 11 ¾ carry.
Outlook: Steady trade as the market awaits the WASDE report this morning
- Wheat markets all lower overnight as demand remains poor and there are no fresh headlines to trade.
- Exports for wheat were disappointing at 360,600 MT, compared to estimates of 350,000-600,000 MT.
- Paris milling wheat futures fell slightly yesterday after rallying earlier this week due to good export demand.
- FranceAgriMer estimates at 67% of the soft wheat area for 2020 has been planted by November 4th, compared to 54% the week prior.
- Spreads: Chicago Z/H 4 ¾ cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 9 cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 16 ½ cent carry.
Outlook: Sideways to lower as the market continues to fail at finding anything new to trade.