Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • First notice day for December grains, soymeal, and soyoil is on Friday, November 29th. Longs should be out of their positions by the close tomorrow to avoid risking delivery.
  • Weekly export sales will be delayed until Friday in honor of Thanksgiving on Thursday.
  • The ag markets will have a regular close on Wednesday and will not reopen until 8:30 AM Central Friday morning. The markets will have a 12:05 pm CT close on Friday.
  • China’s Ministry of Commerce reported that the U.S. and China had another phone call regarding the U.S.-China deal today. China’s top negotiator Liu He, U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer and US Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin were all on the call where they discussed how to resolve remaining problems and concerns related to a phase one agreement.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 AM Central: January crude oil at $59.19 up $0.19 per barrel; gold at $1,46.60 down $0.70; DJIA at 28,063 up 24 points; and the US Dollar Index at 98.302 down 0.021.

Corn

  • Corn traded lower overnight in a narrow range. The market has seemed content to remain range bound, as there has been little in the way of fresh news to get traders excited.
  • A respected crop scout lowered his estimate for the Brazilian corn crop 1.0 million tonnes to 102.0 million tonnes and left his Argentine estimate unchanged at 49.0 million tonnes.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed corn harvest 84% versus the 5-year average of 96% and last year’s 93%. The Northern states are having a very difficult time getting the crop out, with North Dakota reported as having only 30% of the crop harvested.
  • Taiwan bought 65,000 tonnes of corn that is likely Argentine origin for a premium of 156.70 cents per bushel over the CBOT May 2020 contract. The shipment period will likely be February or March.
  • South Korea’s Major Feed Mill Group purchased 60,000 tonnes of corn from optional origins for $204.49 per tonne, plus an additional $1.25 surcharge for port unloading. The corn is to be delivered to South Korea by April 1st 2020.
  • Spreads: Z/H 10 cent carry; H/K 5 ½ cent carry; K/N 5 ¼ cent carry; Z/N 21 cent carry.

Oilseeds

  • Soybeans traded both sides overnight but are slightly lower near 7:00 AM Central. The soybean market continues to watch headlines. The January contract has an RSI of 15.1%, and an RSI of 30 or lower indicates an oversold market.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress showed soybean harvest 94% complete versus the 5-year average of 97% and last year’s 94%.
  • A respected crop scout left his Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged at 123.0 million tonnes and the Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 54.0 million tonnes.
  • Spreads: F/H 12 ¼ cent carry; H/K 14 ¼ cent carry; K/N 12 ¼ cent carry; F/N 41 cent carry.

Wheat

  • The wheat markets were lower across the board this morning, giving back some of yesterday’s very strong gains. The Chicago Z/H spread is very close to going from a carry to inverted.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress report had the U.S. winter wheat crop at 52% good to excellent, which is steady with last week.
  • Ethiopia received an offer to purchase 200,000 tonnes of wheat for $218.00 a tonne c&f in a tender that closed today. A purchase hasn’t been reported yet.
  • Spreads: Chicago Z/H ¼ cent carry; Kansas City 9 ½ cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 15 ¼ cent carry.