12/10/2019 6:52:24 AM
- USDA December Supply & Demand report will be out Tuesday, 11:00 a.m.
- New government officially takes power in Argentina today. There are ideas that grain export taxes may increase.
- December 15th is the scheduled date for additional US tariffs on Chinese goods to kick in.
- Another arctic cold air mass will descend upon the upper Midwest.
- China’s consumer price index was up 4.5% in November, now to their highest in 8 years.China also announced it will auction more pork from state reserves.
- U. S. Dollar index -.084 @ 97.558, Dow futures -118 @ 27,784, Crude Oil futures -.40 @ $58.62.
- Weekly export inspections for corn totaled 18.94 mil bushels.Milo loadings were 1.777 mil bushels. For the current marketing year, corn loadings are running 57% behind last year’s pace.
- The weekly progress report showed corn harvest at 92% vs 100% average, up only 3% from last week. This will be the last report for the calendar year.States of note: North Dakota 43%, Michigan 74%, South Dakota 83%, Wisconsin 74%, Ohio 93%, Iowa 95%
- CONAB is forecasting Brazilian 19/20 corn production to come in at 98.41 mil tons, slightly lower than their 100 mil ton crop last year.
Outlook: the corn market was lifeless again, drifting slightly lower in front of the USDA report. CME trade volume was very low in corn yesterday, keeping the market in a very ‘slow’ mode. The market seems to care not that the implied unharvested corn – still left in the fields, is close to a billion bushels! Calls: flat/unchanged
- Weekly export inspections for beans last week totaled 48.76 mil bushels.
- Jan20 futures managed to close above the 20 day moving average [$8.96].
- Brazil soyabean planting progress pegged at 93% by AgRural.Parts of Argentina remain dry, lending a portion of concern for beans in the region.
- US PNW export basis was firmer yesterday, up 5 to 10 cents.
- There was no weekly harvest report on beans this week.
- CONAB is forecasting Brazilian 19/20 bean production to come in at 121.1 mil tons. With a 2.6% increase in area planted. Last year’s crop came in at 115 mil tons.
Outlook: beans began the week rallying on hopeful export news to China. Wire reports of possibly 5-10 cargoes trading. Short-covering kept a positive trade working all day. Technically, stochastics are diverging to the upside, so we could expect additional higher moves this week. But the USDA report is out this morning, so that will drive trade after 11:00 a.m. Calls: steady to better
- Weekly export inspections for all wheat totaled 11.53 mil bushels. Wheat loadings are currently running 2.0 mil bushels ahead of last year’s pace.
- EU soft wheat exports since July have totaled 11.95 mil tons, which is up 63% over the same period last year.
- Egypt [GASC] issued a tender for milling wheat, for shipment Feb 5-15. The market will await any details this morning.
- There were no wheat ratings issued, as USDA will not put out weekly ratings again until next spring. A few states will put out monthly reports during the winter months. Texas G/E ratings dropped 6 pts to 23% due to ongoing dry conditions.
Outlook: mostly very quiet and mixed trade for wheat. Minneapolis up a bit, KC and Chicago sliding yesterday. Weaker BN and UP rail car premiums are adding pressure to the Texas gulf HRW export cash markets, as the delivered basis is backing off. There were also more HRS spot cars in the market keeping pressure on cash basis. USDA may be inclined to lower world wheat numbers a bit, since they are high on Australia and Argentina versus the current trade estimates. Calls: 1-2 lower