12/12/2019 7:03:14 AM
- Another lethargic day in the grain markets yesterday.
- CHS Hedging is offering Hedging, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Basics training classes coming in January 2020 [Jan 9, 10, & 14]. Visit CHShedging.com for details.
- December futures expire Friday 12/13.
- The Fed holds rates steady, expects moderate growth into next year.
- President Trump will meet today with trade advisors discussing the Dec 15th next planned tariffs on China goods.
- Yesterday was the first day since March that the Missouri River from Omaha to St. Louis was below flood stage.
- Hot and dry are the weather features for southern Argentine corn and bean growing areas for the next two weeks.
- U. S. Dollar index +.031 @ 97.157, Dow futures -42 @ 27,883, Crude Oil futures +31 @ $59.07.
- USDA weekly export sales for corn were 873,000 tons.Milo totaled 33,000 tons.
- Weekly ethanol production was up 12k to 1.072 million barrels per day.Ethanol stocks increased to 21.82 mil barrels, yet are 4.7% below year ago levels.Ethanol margins remain positive for most areas.
- Newswire reports had Brazil buying 200,000 tons of Argentine corn for shipment after the first of the year.
- Strategie Grains is projecting EU corn production for 2020 to total 67.1 mil tons, up 3.6 mil.
Outlook: more slippage in corn futures yesterday, with trade down through the previous November low at $3.73 in CH20 - weaker tones to the market. Santa is putting more coal in his sack for the US corn farmer. But Brazil appears to be running short on corn now, with export basis levels there firming the past several weeks. Calls: steady to +1
- USDA weekly export sales for beans totaled 1,050,000 tons, with 125,000 tons new crop.Meal 238,000 tons, bean oil 30,000.
- There were 500 contracts of December meal deliveries posted yesterday by Bunge.
- CME bean open interest was down over 26,000 yesterday.
Outlook: the market finally saw some China sales announcements [585k tons and 140k to unknown], then promptly sold off lower! Also surprising were Dec bean meal deliveries. Perhaps the market is just exhaling after 6 six straight higher sessions in its run up off the bottom? Calls: 2-3 lower
- USDA weekly export sales for wheat were 503,000 tons.
- WH20 dipped down below its 50 day moving average [$5.18], but also found support at the 50 week moving average [$5.17]. It closed at $5.19 ¼ .
- KWH20, after earlier this week posting an outside higher day, is seeing trade holding just above the 100 day moving average [$4.31]. MWH20 will see its 10 day average cross up through the 20 day moving average on the daily chart.
- Japan tenders this week for 170k tons of milling wheat.
- Strategie Grains is projecting the 2020 EU soft wheat crop at 140.5 mil tons, down 3.6%.
Outlook: wheat markets resumed a ‘ho-hum’ attitude yesterday. Minneapolis held together better than KC or Chicago, and should also see better technical support on the chart. There was talk of more Texas gulf HRW export trade yesterday as well, with bids firmer. Still results and actions of ‘cheaper’ rail freight premiums around the market the catalyst for wheat trade action. The domestic spot market has been quiet. Calls: mixed