12/13/2019 7:08:54 AM
- It is Friday the 13th, December futures expire at noon today.
- Markets yesterday were again floated higher on rumors of lifted or reduced tariffs making the rounds and the headlines out of Washington.Also, Presidential ‘tweets’ that a ‘deal’ is close.
- Later afternoon headlines “US reaches deal in principle with China” – awaiting Trump’s approval. It would delay the proposed Dec 15 new round of tariffs.
- This morning, headlines quote China would agree to buy $50 bil in US goods in 2020, in return for US suspending tariffs planned to go into effect and reduce current tariffs by some degree, perhaps 50%.
- British elections favor the Tories and Boris Johnson, and that Brexit will be a reality.The British Pound is much firmer, thus the weaker US dollar.
- U. S. Dollar index -.540 @ 96.857, Dow futures +15 @ 28,150, Crude Oil futures +.61 @ $59.80.
- Huge corn sales to Mexico yesterday via USDA daily reporting system.1.6 mil tons corn in total to Mexico, and another 110k to unknown.
- CH20 was up .07 yesterday, trading and closing up through the 20 day moving average [3.78].
- Argentine corn planting is estimated at 55% complete. Dry conditions remain in their weather forecasts.
Outlook: corn finally found a demand story to rally on. A Mexican buyer found the low prices on corn attractive and covered some needs all the way out into next year new crop. Can’t blame them, quality corn could get real tight next summer. Calls: 3-5 better
- SF20 was firmer, and overnight technical trade seeing values push up through the 100 day moving average [9.07].
- Argentine bean planting estimated at 61%, up from 49% last week.
Outlook: bean sales were very good for last week, and we’ve seen new China business this week. Beans weren’t the featured high mover yesterday, but are taking the lead this morning on positive China trade news. There are a lot of ‘assumptions’ again to the positive China / US trade deal, so keep that in mind. Let’s see if the enthusiasm holds this morning. Calls: 8-12 higher
- KWH20 easily traded up through all its moving averages, settling +.12 higher, and approaching the previous November highs at $4.50. WH20 put in an outside higher trade session, and closed back above its short term moving averages.
- There were 77 Chicago receipts registered for delivery in St Louis versus WZ19 futures, likely would be as HRW. WZ/KWZ showing +1.12 last night.
- Argentine wheat harvest is pegged at 61% complete. BAGE is currently estimating the crop at 18.5 mil tons.
Outlook: good export sales gave an initial bump in wheat markets. Buying got more aggressive throughout the session, and KC put in the best upticks of the day. If the China deal comes to pass, the trade expects they may buy small portions of US HRW to spend money. SRW and HRS would not likely make their trade specs this year. Calls: 3-6 higher