Morning Highlights


  • The USMCA heads to the Senate for review and approval, although it may not get signed until after President Trump’s impeachment trial.
  • Phase One trade deal is expected to get signed sometime in January.
  • China’s PMI and non-manufacturing PMI are expected to show a slight decline to 50.1 & 54.2 respectively. Their GDP growth rate is expected to decline 0.2 to 5.2.
  • The energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil up 35 cents at $62.08/barrel.
  • The US$ is slightly lower, the gold market is 2-3 bucks lower at 1515, and the CD$ is slightly higher at 0.76585.
  • DJIA up 23 at 28645, S&P up 1-2 at 3239, and the NASDAQ up 1 at 8784. 


  • Corn prices traded slightly higher in a narrow trading range. Position squaring ahead of the end of the year.
  • US farmers are thought to be 37% sold on corn versus 45% sold this time last year.
  • Spreads: H/K 6 ¾ carry......H/N 12 ¾ carry......N/Z 1 carry. 

Outlook:  Choppy trade on lack of fresh supportive news 


  • Soybean prices continue trading higher on Chines buying optimism.
  • Brazil 6-10 outlook suggests 1-2” rain across central /east central portions this week after being mostly dry over the weekend.
  • Argentina continues to be mostly dry with a few scattered showers possible in the 6-10 day outlook.
  • The US farmers are thought to be 35% sold on soybeans versus 47% sold at this time last year.
  • Palm oil up was 55 stronger overnight to 3,128 ringgit.
  • China’s beans were up 5 cents, meal up $4.90 and oil up 32 points.
  • Spreads: H/K 13 ¼ carry......K/N 11 ½ carry......N/X 1 ½ carry....X/F 3 carry. 

Outlook: Higher trade on Chinese optimism and SA weather concerns 


  • Wheat prices rose on hopes that the Phase One trade deal will include Chinese purchases of US wheat.
  • Weather/crop concerns in Ukraine and Russia.
  • Chinese wheat purchases from the EU are expected reach nearly 1.0 mmt this season.
  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 7 ½ carry, Kansas City H/K 8 carry, Chicago H/K 2 ¼ carry.Mpls Mar is at a 73 cent premium over KC Mar and Chicago Mar is at a 73 ½ cent premium over KC Mar. 

Outlook: higher trade on Ukraine/Russian crop concerns and year-end positioning