12/30/2019 7:14:01 AM
- The USMCA heads to the Senate for review and approval, although it may not get signed until after President Trump’s impeachment trial.
- Phase One trade deal is expected to get signed sometime in January.
- China’s PMI and non-manufacturing PMI are expected to show a slight decline to 50.1 & 54.2 respectively. Their GDP growth rate is expected to decline 0.2 to 5.2.
- The energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil up 35 cents at $62.08/barrel.
- The US$ is slightly lower, the gold market is 2-3 bucks lower at 1515, and the CD$ is slightly higher at 0.76585.
- DJIA up 23 at 28645, S&P up 1-2 at 3239, and the NASDAQ up 1 at 8784.
- Corn prices traded slightly higher in a narrow trading range. Position squaring ahead of the end of the year.
- US farmers are thought to be 37% sold on corn versus 45% sold this time last year.
- Spreads: H/K 6 ¾ carry......H/N 12 ¾ carry......N/Z 1 carry.
Outlook: Choppy trade on lack of fresh supportive news
- Soybean prices continue trading higher on Chines buying optimism.
- Brazil 6-10 outlook suggests 1-2” rain across central /east central portions this week after being mostly dry over the weekend.
- Argentina continues to be mostly dry with a few scattered showers possible in the 6-10 day outlook.
- The US farmers are thought to be 35% sold on soybeans versus 47% sold at this time last year.
- Palm oil up was 55 stronger overnight to 3,128 ringgit.
- China’s beans were up 5 cents, meal up $4.90 and oil up 32 points.
- Spreads: H/K 13 ¼ carry......K/N 11 ½ carry......N/X 1 ½ carry....X/F 3 carry.
Outlook: Higher trade on Chinese optimism and SA weather concerns
- Wheat prices rose on hopes that the Phase One trade deal will include Chinese purchases of US wheat.
- Weather/crop concerns in Ukraine and Russia.
- Chinese wheat purchases from the EU are expected reach nearly 1.0 mmt this season.
- Spreads: Mpls H/K 7 ½ carry, Kansas City H/K 8 carry, Chicago H/K 2 ¼ carry.Mpls Mar is at a 73 cent premium over KC Mar and Chicago Mar is at a 73 ½ cent premium over KC Mar.
Outlook: higher trade on Ukraine/Russian crop concerns and year-end positioning