12/31/2019 7:23:10 AM
- The USDA is scheduled to release their Fats and Oils report for November on Thursday, January 2nd at 2 PM CST. The average trade estimate is at 175.9 mb of soybeans crushed (175.0-177.0). Soyoil oil stocks are estimated at 1.839 billion pounds (1.802-1.870).
- Plans are that the Phase One trade agreement will be signed this week.
- Month-end, quarter-end and year-end positioning expected today.
- The next big item will be the USDA’s January 10th final Crop Production, Dec 1 Grain Stocks and the 2020 Winter Wheat Seedings reports.
- The energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil down 6 cents at $61.07/barrel (was at $62/barrel yesterday morning).
- The US$ is down 310 at 96.43, the gold market is up 5 bucks at $1,523/ounce and the CD$ is up 0.00285 at 0.7692.
- The corn market appears to be stuck in a rut from $3.85-$3.95 ahead of the Jan 10 production report by the USDA.
- There is still a lot of corn left in the fields in the Northern Plains area, and after the winter storm over the weekend, it looks like it will stay right there until spring.
- Increased farmer selling at the $3.85-$3.90 level has been noted. Funds have been covering their shorts over the past few days.
- Spreads: H/K 7 carry...37% of FC (full carry at 19 cents), K/N 6 ¼ carry, N/Z 1 ¾ carry.
Outlook: Mixed trade ahead of the year end and the New Year’s Day Holiday
- The soybean market is a bit softer this morning, pulling back from the recent rally. Support stems from Chines optimism and dryness in parts of SA.
- Deliveries: 795 for beans, 1,355 for meal and 1,003 for soyoil.
- Malaysian palm oil prices retreated, closing down 76 at 3,052 ringgit.
- China beans were up 8 ½ cents overnight, meal up 2 buck and soyoil up 31 points.
- Spreads: H/K 13 ¼ carry...60% of FC (full carry at 22 ½ cents), K/N 11 ¾ carry, N/X 1 inverse and X/F 2 ¼ carry. The H/K canola 9 carry......FC at 10 ½ (88% of full carry).
Outlook: slightly lower on big deliveries
- The wheat market continues to move higher on Chinese optimism and crop concerns in Ukraine and Russia.
- Ideas are that the market is getting a bit overdone to the upside.
- Russia is said to be on holiday mode next week.
- Spreads: Mpls H/K 9 carry...FC at 18 cents (52% of full carry) ......Kansas City H/K 8 ¼ carry....FC at 13 ¼ cents (64% of full carry).
Outlook: Higher trade on crop concerns, Chines optimism and short covering