Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • The signing ceremony for Phase 1 of the trade deal will take place today at 10:30 A.M. CT at the White House, after the ceremony has been completed, details of the deal are expected to be released.
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the documents released after Phase 1 is signed will prove that the trade deal is fully enforceable.
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also stated that the tariffs on Chinese goods will stay in place until Phase 2 of the trade deal is completed.
  • FranceAgriMer stated that several animal feed factories have been halted in France due to the strikes impacting grain transport.
  • Another case of H5N8 bird flu has been reported, this time in Romania, killing over 11,000 birds out of a flock of 18,699.
  • As of 7:00 AM: Crude oil down 0.06 at 58.16, Dow futures down 24 ticks at 28,910, and the U.S$ index down 54 ticks at 97.318.                          

 Corn

  • The corn market is a fraction of a cent lower overnight as traders await the signing of Phase 1 today.
  • FranceAgriMer left their 2019/2020 French maize stocks unchanged at 2.1 million tonnes.
  • Corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 2 yuan higher, about 29 U.S. cents, at 1,924 yuan per tonne.
  • Recent rains in Argentina have improved soil conditions in corn growing regions, however forecasts for the remainder of this week into early next week are showing little to no rain.
  • Spreads: H/K 6 ¾ cent carry; K/N 6 ¼ cent carry; N/Z 2 cent carry .

Outlook: The market will remain steady this morning until details of the trade deal are released.

 Oilseeds

  • The soybean market is slightly lower overnight in front of today’s signing ceremony, as traders are skeptical of China being able to purchase the amounts of agricultural products it is committing to buy.
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated this morning that China has agreed to put together significant laws in order to follow through on its commitments.
  • Chinese agriculture ministry official Tang Ke stated that Chinese imports of soybeans will rise in 2020, and although ASF curbed soybean demand there are measures in place to boost pig production.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures fell 2% during today's session due to lower than expected exports and continued tensions between India and Malaysia.
  • Deliveries are 36 for soybeans, 217 for meal, and 113 for oil.
  • Spreads: H/K 13 ¼ carry, H/N 25 carry, N/X 2 ¼ carry

Outlook: Steady to lower this morning as traders await more details regarding Phase 1 of the trade deal that will be released today.  

 Wheat

  • Wheat markets are higher overnight due to supply concerns, as Russia is considering capping their wheat exports creating optimism this will increase demand for U.S wheat.
  • Egypt’s GASC purchased wheat via tender from $248.85 to $249.90 per tonne c&f, which was up $3 to $4 from the Egyptian tender on January 8th.
  • FranceAgriMer raised their 2019/2020 soft wheat exports to outside of the EU from 12.2 million tonnes to 12.4 million. This is the fourth month in a row they have raised the non-EU export forecast.
  • Spreads: Chicago H/K ¾ cent carry; Kansas City H/K 7 ¼ cent carry; Minneapolis H/K 8 cent carry.

Outlook: Slightly higher today as world demand and tighter supplies support the market.