Morning Highlights


Highlights                                 

  • The official Coronavirus tally is up to 31,211 confirmed cases with 637 deaths. Reuters reports that one of the first Chinese doctors to recognize the virus as “SARS-like” has died. He had put out a warning on social media and was threatened by the government with charges.
  • The USDA says they will not use details from the Phase 1 trade deal to calculate this month’s WASDE report, which will be released Tuesday, February 11 at 11am CT.
  • The U.S. dollar index is up 1200 pts so far this week to its highest since October 15.
  • January nonfarm payrolls will be released at 7:30am CT with analysts looking for a increase of 163,000 jobs.
  • CHS will have a free Compass training class in Inver Grove Heights on March 25th.  Register on our website at www.chshedging.com as space is limited.
  • As of 6:55 am CT, crude oil is down 51 cents at $50.44/barrel, gold is up 1.00 at $1,566.10, DOW down 98 to 29,234, dollar index is up 77, and Euro is down 160 pts.

Corn

  • CH/CK traded to -4 ¾ overnight up from -6 earlier in the week, with -4 being the narrowest it has traded since August.
  • BAGE estimates Argentine corn planting is 98.8% complete vs a 96.4% 5 year average, with conditions down 1 pt to 59% good-to-excellent.
  • EMATER estimates Rio Grande do Sul corn harvest is 33% complete vs a 28% 5 year average.

Outlook:  March futures up ¾ to up 2 ¾ overnight.. rangebound as it bounces off low end support.

Oilseeds

  • Argentina has had perfect weather for their soybeans so far, with 2 week forecasts also looking favorable. Crop conditions are rated 99.9% fair or better.
  • US Ag attache to Brazil raised their soybean production estimate from 123.5 MMT to 124.5 MMT vs USDA at 123 MMT. EMATER says RGDS beans are 33% flowering and 42% filling.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures were down 37 ringgits overnight, but are still up 209 on the week. China’s Dalian soybeans were up 4 ¾ overnight, soymeal up 0.90, and soyoil down 16.

Outlook:  March beans down 1 to up 3 ¾ overnight..  beans are also looking rangebound as they wait for the WASDE report and Feb 15 to see if China comes to the rescue.

Wheat

  • The U.S. and Kenya will begin work on a trade deal, as both sides see “enormous potential.” Reuters reports that Kenya will, “adopt standards that will allow U.S. wheat growers access to its markets.”
  • French wheat exports in December totaled 1.2 MMT, a marketing year high. There were rumors yesterday that China bought 6-11 cargos of French wheat.
  • Russian wheat stocks as of January 1 are down 4% year-over-year.
  • Russia’s agriculture safety watchdog says Russian wheat has gained “preliminary approval” from Algeria.

Outlook:  March KC wheat down 1 ¾ to up 2 ½ overnight.. wheat is trying to hold its head above its 50 day moving average and hoping for more export sales announcements.