2/12/2020 7:13:54 AM
- There are now 1,113 people that have passed away due to the coronavirus with 44,653 cases confirmed.
- White House National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien said late yesterday the coronavirus could have an impact on how big Chinese purchases are in the current year.
- OPEC has reduced their outlook for global oil demand growth to 0.99 million barrels per day for 2020. That is down 0.23 million barrels per day from last month. However, WTI crude oil futures were 75 cents/barrel higher overnight as China released the lowest daily number of new coronavirus cases since late January.
- As of 7:15 am CT: US Dow futures are up 141, WTI crude oil is up $1.11 per barrel and USD is up .026 to 98.620.
- Corn is weaker again overnight, trending lower since last Friday’s high of $3.85 on the March contract.
- The WASDE report yesterday showed ending stocks unchanged from January but exports were reduced 50 million bushels. However, ethanol demand increased by 50 million bushels to offset the drop in exports.
- After the uneventful WASDE report yesterday, the market’s focus is back on US exports and South American weather. The USDA Outlook Forum next week on the 20th and 21st, will provide the market with something to discuss until the March 31st Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports.
- There are some folks in North Dakota picking corn, trying to get it out before spring comes. The quality of the corn they can get to seems to be holding steady since the fall.
- Spreads are quiet: H/K 4 ½ carry, H/N 8 ¼ carry, H/Z 12 ¼ carry.
Outlook: Weaker market looking for export demand to pick up.
- Soybeans are weaker overnight on quiet trade.
- The WASDE report yesterday came out with stocks lower than market expectations but futures couldn’t hold the gains as Brazil production was increased 2 MMT to 125 MMT.
- The weaker Brazilian real in midst of harvest is leading to strong farmer selling and plenty of soybeans heading to ports. The market is keeping a close eye on the Chinese purchases and Brazil’s ability to handle a record crop.
- Dalian soybeans were 5 ½ cents lower, soymeal was $0.40/ton lower and corn was unchanged. Malaysian palm oil futures were up 14 ringgits to 2,709 ringgits.
- Spreads are tighter this morning: H/K 12 ¼ carry, H/N 25 carry, H/X 34 carry, N/X 9 carry.
Outlook: Friendlier than expected report yesterday but futures still turned weaker as all eyes are on South America production and Chinese purchases.
- Wheat is weaker across the board, but Matif wheat futures are modestly higher.
- The market sold off some after yesterday’s WASDE report came out even though US ending stocks dropped due to a larger export estimate.
- The Chicago market has dropped 20 cents from last Friday’s high as funds are liquidating some of their position. The March-May spread has gone from a 3 ½ cent inverse last week to a 1 ¼ cent carry this morning.
- The Egyptians purchased 180,000 MT each from Romania and Russia in their latest tender as offers turned weaker.
- Spreads are mixed this morning: Mpls H/K 9 carry, Kansas City H/K 6 ¼ carry, Chicago H/K 1 ¼ cent carry.
Outlook: Weaker market appears to be in the cards for today again as the global prices have retraced and no supply concerns present.