Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • The Trump administration plans to drastically cut back on the U.S. EPA’s biofuel waiver program that exempted small oil refineries from the country’s biofuel guidelines.
  • China announced that they will make health system reforms, improving and promoting health insurance and centralizing drug procurement due to the coronavirus crisis.
  • A Chinese Commerce Ministry official stated that the impact of the coronavirus on foreign trade is temporary, and that they will take measures to stabilize the trade supply chains.
  • Vietnam has culled 137,000 birds so far this year due to bird flu outbreaks, with 38 outbreaks being H5N6 and 5 outbreaks being H5N1.
  • The United Nations food agency reported that world food prices dipped in February, falling to 180.5 points in February vs 182.4 points in January.
  • As of 7:00 AM: Crude oil up 0.28 at 47.06, Dow futures down 491 ticks at 26,474, and the U.S$ index down 350 at 96.986.                          

 Corn

  • The corn market is trading slightly lower overnight, with trade remaining within a narrow range as the market fails to find any fundamental news to support it.
  • Taiwan’s MFG purchased around 65,000 tonnes of corn via tender, with the corn likely to be sourced from Argentina.
  • Ethanol inventories increased by 0.3 million to 25.0 million barrels this week; this is the largest inventory total ever recorded.
  • The 6-10 day forecast for Brazil expects that dryness will increase in the west central areas, causing stress on the safrinha corn to increase. The 11-15 day forecast expects rains to help ease these stresses and improve soil moisture.
  • Spreads: H/K 2 cent carry; K/N 2 ½ cent carry; N/Z ¼ cent carry .

Outlook: Continuing to trade lower within a narrow range as the market lacks any fresh news to trade off.

 Oilseeds

  • The soybean market traded higher overnight before falling off its highs, and ultimately trading a few cents lower this morning. Early support for the market stemmed from Argentina’s planned tax increase.
  • The new tax hike in Argentina is expected to have an impact on farm investment and the amount of soybeans harvested in Argentina going forward.
  • U.S. Agriculture Secretary Perdue predicted yesterday that Chinese purchases of U.S soybeans would materialize in late spring to early summer.
  • USDA attaché in Buenos Aires projects that Argentina’s 19/20 soybean crop will be 54.1 million tonnes, vs the USDA’s estimate of 53.0 million.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures traded higher again today for the fourth consecutive session, the support in the market stems from lower February production and higher demand due to Ramadan. The benchmark contract closed 0.88% higher.
  • Spreads: H/K 9 carry, H/N 14 ¾ carry, N/X 3 carry

Outlook: Trading slightly lower today as the market eases after making a six-week high during the overnight session.

 Wheat

  • Wheat markets are mixed this morning, with Chicago and KC trading slightly lower and Mpls trading a fraction higher.
  • Ukraine’s 2020 grain harvest could possibly fall to a low of 65 million tonnes due to a decrease in wheat planting this year.
  • Asian flour mills are expected to ramp up wheat purchases due to prices easing in the Black Sea region.
  • Thailand purchased about 120,000 tonnes of feed wheat, likely to be sourced from the Black Sea region.
  • Tunisia purchased approximately 117,000 tonnes of soft wheat via tender, the grain can be sourced from optional origins and the lowest price was believed to be $227.19 a tonne c&f.
  • Spreads: Chicago K/N 1½ cent carry; Kansas City K/N 6 ¾ cent carry; Minneapolis K/N 9 ½ cent carry.

Outlook: Trading steady to lower today as traders remain wary of the coronavirus spreading and its effects of the global economy.