Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Continued instability of the equity, energy and financial markets, keeping the ag sector on edge.Bank of England lowered their rates .5% this morning to combat the economic impacts to the Coronavirus.
  • After seeing some support in the WTI crude oil markets yesterday, some pressure has returned this morning.The impacts of the production disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Russia having severe implications both in the futures and uncertainty in the overall markets.It appears it is becoming a fight of will between a more state-run production model and more of a private run model that Russia is based off which has enormous impacts to other major producing countries like the US.
  • While there are major implications to what could happen to the ag sector, the current impacts of the Coronavirus and the Russia/Saudi spat appear to be a bit more muted.Export negativity was already in the markets before this escalated.The USDA, as expected, did not make any major changes to the balance sheets so the focus is quickly moving to the planting intention and stocks report that will be released at the end of the month.

 

Corn

  • After the steep sell off corn saw as the market neared first notice day on the March futures, it appears that the front month is trying to return to the support levels prior to that move at $3.77.With Corn inverted slightly between March and May, no gaps are expected as May takes over as the front month which could offer some stability as we prepare for the March 31st USDA report.
  • While the market is cautious about the demand implications of Coronavirus, the USDA did not change the balance sheets yesterday.It appears they want to wait for the March 31 report first and monitor the actual impacts of trade as the virus spreads.
  • Spreads continue to be flat into the deferred with K/N at a 2-cent carry and the N/Z at a 1 ¼ cent carry.

 

Outlook: Market calls are 1-2 cents lower as the market begins to position itself for the planting intention and stocks reports at the end of March.

 

Oilseeds

  • After breaking through key technical support on Monday, beans are seeing some additional support this morning as the market monitors the impacts of Coronavirus to the exports.
  • The USDA left the US balance sheets unchanged so the market is quickly focusing on the planting intentions later in the month.
  • The USDA increased the production estimates for both Argentina and Brazil by 1 MMT but left the Chinese imports unchanged.
  • Spreads continue narrow up with K/N at an 8-cent carry and the N/X at a 7-cent carry.The new crop bean to corn ratio continues to hold in the neutral territory at roughly 2.35.

 

Outlook: Calls are 1-2 better this morning trying to hold the spread with corn.

 

Wheat

  • Wheat saw no changes on the US balance sheets yesterday, so the focus will return to how the conditions evolve as spring approaches.
  • Like corn and beans, it appears the USDA will continue to monitor the impacts to the exports as the spread of the Coronavirus is realized.
  • Spreads this morning: Chicago K/N 1-cent inverse; Kansas City K/N 7-cent carry; Minneapolis K/N 10-cent carry.

 

Outlook: Calls are 3-4 lower for Chicago, 2-3 lower for KC and mixed in Minneapolis as the market appears to be focused on the wheat spreads