3/23/2020 7:13:38 AM
- The financial and energy markets are mostly lower though crude oil has rebounded well off the overnight lows. DOW futures are about 600 points lower and RBOB is down a nickel.
- The US$ is slightly lower around 102.750.
- US Congress works on an aid package.
- The USDA’s planting intentions and March 1 grain stocks reports are still scheduled for release on March 31st at 11 AM CDT.
- The corn market has traded two-sided, spending most of the overnight session lower but has rebounded into the daylight hours following strength in the soy complex and wheat markets.
- Corn trades well within last week’s trading range as economic uncertainty because of COVID-19 pushes sizable assets to the sidelines.
- Friday’s COT showed managed money and large spec funds added to their already net short positions. Large spec funds are estimated net short about 143k.
- Weekend chatter of continued slowdowns/shutdowns for US ethanol plants as margins become strained. US consumption of ethanol/gasoline drops as more and more workers stay home in an attempt to avoid COVID-19.
- Spreads are weaker on the threat to demand: K/N 6 carry, N/U 5 ¾ carry, N/Z 14 carry, Z/H 9 ¾ carry.
Outlook: Fractionally mixed as US ethanol profitability will be a major influencer on price direction.
- The soy complex continues to move higher on talk of closures/slowdowns at some South America ports that could slow loading of soybeans and soymeal and disrupt global trade.
- The market sees follow-through strength as soymeal tries to be the leader.
- May soybeans have nearly a twenty cent trading range overnight with a daily chart gap looming above at $8.85 to $8.88 ½. Nov beans have a $9.00 to $9.03 ½ gap.
- Malaysia palm oil began the week nominally higher, up 1 ringgit, China’s Dalian soybeans were lower and Dalian soymeal was higher.
- As China’s battle with COVID-19 seems to be improving, thoughts are maybe Chinese demand could benefit.
- Global uncertainty reigns this morning and many countries offer economic stimuli to help support markets and slow economic damage.
- Spreads: K/N 3 ¼ carry, N/Q ¾ cent carry, N/X 9 ¼ inverse, X/H 22 ½ inverse.
Outlook: Seeing double digit higher trade but prices have shown signs of fading as we turn towards daylight.
- Wheat price action seems to be the most stable beacon as there is some worry about the global and US supply.
- Chicago and KC futures see the highest levels in 30 days as WK and KWK trade above their 50, 100 and 200 day MAs.
- Paris milling wheat futures are firmly higher.
- Algeria, Turkey, Syria, Ethiopia have issued tenders according to Reuters.
- EU’s Ag monitoring units sees soft wheat yields falling 2.1%, citing conditions being too wet.
- Spreads: Mpls K/N 9 ¾ carry, U/Z 12 carry, Kansas City K/N 3 ½ carry, Chicago K/N 4 ¾ inverse.
Outlook: Trading around a dime higher