3/24/2020 7:04:33 AM
- The financial and energy markets are mostly higher overnight. DOW futures are about 900 points higher and crude oil is up $0.70.
- The US$ index is over a full point lower at 101.210.
- US Congress continues to work on a stimulus package.
- The USDA’s planting intentions and March 1 grain stocks reports are still scheduled for release on March 31st at 11 AM CDT.
- The corn market has traded both sides overnight as the ethanol industry continues to struggle with low crude and unleaded gasoline. Futures seem to be consolidating with some traders thinking the US farmer could plant less corn and more soybeans if corn futures continue to slide.
- Poor ethanol margins are causing some plants to slowdown or close, with a few pulling nearby cash bids.
- US FOB export offers have become more competitive.
- Corn and Soy advisor Cordonnier left his Brazil corn production estimate at 98mmt but has a lower bias.
- Spreads are mostly steady: K/N 6 carry, N/U 5 ¾ carry, N/Z 14 ¼ carry, Z/H 10 carry.
Outlook: Trading slightly lower as US ethanol profitability reduces demand.
- Soybeans are modestly lower but trade near the top of yesterday’s trading range as news remains about possible S American disruptions and questions on China’s supply. There is talk that China’s supply of soybeans is the smallest in years but ASF, the hog herd reduction and their soy imports bring the math for that scenario into question.
- Corn/soy advisor Cordonnier dropped his Brazil soy production 1mmt to 122mmt, citing dry conditions in RGDS.
- The recent price drop could allow China to begin Phase 1 buying of US new crop soybeans when the US is most competitive.
- Appears to be some meal/oil spreading as meal loses against soyoil. Soymeal has been the underlying factor supporting soybeans on worry that meal and soybean shipments from South America’s exporters could be disrupted by COVID-19.
- Technically SK tests the bottom-side of a chart gap from $8.85 ¼ to $8.88 ½ from March 9th.
- Malaysia palm oil is firm with China’s Dalian soybeans and Dalian soymeal also higher.
- Spreads are weaker: K/N 2 ¾ carry, N/Q 1 cent carry, N/X 9 ¾ inverse, X/H 24 inverse.
Outlook: Trading lower as it appears that SK has failed to stage a major test of the chart gap. Seeing prices slide 5-10 cents.
- Strong domestic and global flour demand as the world’s consumer stresses the supply chain as they empty the grocery stores shelves because of COVID 19.
- Wheat prices seeing a lower correction as state by state ratings and conditions saw a noticeable improvement in CO, OK and TX. Kansas ratings saw minor improvement, which comes as no surprise with the crop the furthest behind in development in late March. Texas reports 27% of the crop is headed and OK reports 27% is jointed.
- Global demand also seems to have increased with Algeria, Morocco, Turkey and Ethiopia issuing tenders.
- The Black Sea and French FOB export offers appear well below FOB US offers.
- Paris milling wheat futures are weaker.
- Spreads: Mpls K/N 9 carry, U/Z 11 ¼ carry, Kansas City K/N 3 ½ carry, Chicago K/N 7 ½ inverse.
Outlook: Trading 4 to 8 lower as KC was unable to test the Feb high so far.